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dc.contributor.authorCameron, Michael Patrick
dc.contributor.authorPoot, Jacques
dc.date.accessioned2010-04-01T01:09:45Z
dc.date.available2010-04-01T01:09:45Z
dc.date.issued2010-03
dc.identifier.citationCameron, M. P. & Poot, J. (2010). A stochastic sub-national population projection methodology with an application to the Waikato region of New Zealand. (Population Studies Centre Discussion Paper No.70). Hamilton, New Zealand: University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre.en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10289/3760
dc.description.abstractIn this paper we use a stochastic population projection methodology at the sub-national level as an alternative to the conventional deterministic cohort-component method. We briefly evaluate the accuracy of previous deterministic projections and find that there is a tendency for these to be conservative: under-projecting fast growing populations and over-projecting slow growing ones. We generate probabilistic population projections for five demographically distinct administrative areas within the Waikato region of New Zealand, namely Hamilton City, Franklin District, Thames-Coromandel District, Otorohanga District and South Waikato District. Although spatial interaction between the areas is not taken into account in the current version of the methodology, a consistent set of cross-regional assumptions is used. The results are compared to official sub-national deterministic projections. The accuracy of sub-national population projections is in New Zealand strongly affected by the instability of migration as a component of population change. Unlike the standard cohort-component methodology, in which net migration levels are projected, the key parameters of our stochastic methodology are age-gender-area specific net migration rates. The projected range of rates of population growth is wider for smaller regions and/or regions more strongly affected by net migration. Generally, the identified and modelled uncertainty makes the traditional ‘mid range’ scenario of sub-national population projections of limited use for policy analysis or planning beyond a relatively short projection horizon. Directions for further development of a stochastic sub-national projection methodology are suggested.en
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherThe University of Waikatoen_NZ
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPopulation Studies Centre (PSC) Discussion Papers
dc.subjectcohort-component modelen
dc.subjectstochastic simulationen
dc.subjectpopulationen
dc.subjectfertilityen
dc.subjectmortalityen
dc.subjectmigrationen
dc.subjectsub-national areaen
dc.titleA stochastic sub-national population projection methodology with an application to the Waikato region of New Zealanden
dc.typeWorking Paperen
uow.relation.seriesNo.70
dc.relation.isPartOfPopulation Studies Centre Discussion Papersen_NZ
pubs.elements-id54032


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