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dc.contributor.authorFoo, Dani
dc.date.accessioned2012-11-27T22:44:00Z
dc.date.available2012-11-27T22:44:00Z
dc.date.issued2011
dc.identifier.citationFoo, D. (2011). Does New Zealand visitors follow the Joseph Effect? Some empirical evidence. In Chan, F., Marinova, D. and Anderssen, R.S. (eds) MODSIM2011, 19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2011, pp. 1519-1525. ISBN: 978-0-9872143-1-7. http://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim2011/D7/foo.pdfen_NZ
dc.identifier.isbn978-0-9872143-1-7
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10289/6902
dc.description.abstractThe report departs from conventional time series analysis and investigates the existence of long memory (LRD) in the stream of daily visitors, arriving from various sources to New Zealand from 1997 to 2010, using selected estimators of the Hurst-exponent. The daily arrivals of visitors are treated as a stream of "digital signals" with the inherent noise. After minimizing the noise (i.e. the presence of short-term trends, periodicities, and cycles) we found the existence of significant long memory embedded in our data of daily visitors from all sources and in the aggregate. Strong evidence of embedded “long memory” implies that Joseph Effect – that good times beget good times and bad times beget bad – whose existence in the underlying process may have interesting implications for tourism policy makers. Our findings suggest evidence of such long term memory in tourist arrival data. Further, unless this long memory effect is taken into consideration, any traditional statistical analysis based on Gaussian and Poisson assumptions may be overly biased.en_NZ
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherThe Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand Inc.en_NZ
dc.relation.urihttp://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim2011/index.htmen_NZ
dc.rights© The Authors 2011en_NZ
dc.subjectInternational tourismen_NZ
dc.subjectinternational tourists arrivalen_NZ
dc.subjectlong range dependenciesen_NZ
dc.subjectHurst Indexen_NZ
dc.titleDoes New Zealand visitors follow the Joseph Effect? Some empirical evidenceen_NZ
dc.typeConference Contributionen_NZ
pubs.elements-id21457


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