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Does New Zealand visitors follow the Joseph Effect? Some empirical evidence

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dc.contributor.author Foo, Dani
dc.date.accessioned 2012-11-27T22:44:00Z
dc.date.available 2012-11-27T22:44:00Z
dc.date.issued 2011
dc.identifier.citation Foo, D. (2011). Does New Zealand visitors follow the Joseph Effect? Some empirical evidence. In Chan, F., Marinova, D. and Anderssen, R.S. (eds) MODSIM2011, 19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2011, pp. 1519-1525. ISBN: 978-0-9872143-1-7. http://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim2011/D7/foo.pdf en_NZ
dc.identifier.isbn 978-0-9872143-1-7
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10289/6902
dc.description.abstract The report departs from conventional time series analysis and investigates the existence of long memory (LRD) in the stream of daily visitors, arriving from various sources to New Zealand from 1997 to 2010, using selected estimators of the Hurst-exponent. The daily arrivals of visitors are treated as a stream of "digital signals" with the inherent noise. After minimizing the noise (i.e. the presence of short-term trends, periodicities, and cycles) we found the existence of significant long memory embedded in our data of daily visitors from all sources and in the aggregate. Strong evidence of embedded “long memory” implies that Joseph Effect – that good times beget good times and bad times beget bad – whose existence in the underlying process may have interesting implications for tourism policy makers. Our findings suggest evidence of such long term memory in tourist arrival data. Further, unless this long memory effect is taken into consideration, any traditional statistical analysis based on Gaussian and Poisson assumptions may be overly biased. en_NZ
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.language.iso en
dc.publisher The Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand Inc. en_NZ
dc.relation.uri http://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim2011/index.htm en_NZ
dc.rights © The Authors 2011 en_NZ
dc.subject International tourism en_NZ
dc.subject international tourists arrival en_NZ
dc.subject long range dependencies en_NZ
dc.subject Hurst Index en_NZ
dc.title Does New Zealand visitors follow the Joseph Effect? Some empirical evidence en_NZ
dc.type Conference Contribution en_NZ


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