Population Studies Centre (PSC) Discussion Papers

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https://researchcommons.waikato.ac.nz/handle/10289/6538

The Population Studies Centre (PSC) was established at the University of Waikato in 1982 and transitioned into The National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis in 2010. The research programmes of the PSC addressed the most central questions of population studies relating to demographic transitions and to population distribution, and has linked these to economic, political and social transformations. This collection houses the discussion papers published by the Centre.

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A stochastic sub-national population projection methodology with an application to the Waikato region of New Zealand
(Working Paper, The University of Waikato, 2010-03) Cameron, Michael Patrick; Poot, Jacques
In this paper we use a stochastic population projection methodology at the sub-national level as an alternative to the conventional deterministic cohort-component method. We briefly evaluate the accuracy of previous deterministic projections and find that there is a tendency for these to be conservative: under-projecting fast growing populations and over-projecting slow growing ones. We generate probabilistic population projections for five demographically distinct administrative areas within the Waikato region of New Zealand, namely Hamilton City, Franklin District, Thames-Coromandel District, Otorohanga District and South Waikato District. Although spatial interaction between the areas is not taken into account in the current version of the methodology, a consistent set of cross-regional assumptions is used. The results are compared to official sub-national deterministic projections. The accuracy of sub-national population projections is in New Zealand strongly affected by the instability of migration as a component of population change. Unlike the standard cohort-component methodology, in which net migration levels are projected, the key parameters of our stochastic methodology are age-gender-area specific net migration rates. The projected range of rates of population growth is wider for smaller regions and/or regions more strongly affected by net migration. Generally, the identified and modelled uncertainty makes the traditional ‘mid range’ scenario of sub-national population projections of limited use for policy analysis or planning beyond a relatively short projection horizon. Directions for further development of a stochastic sub-national projection methodology are suggested.
International migration in a sea of islands: Challenges and opportunities for insular Pacific spaces
(Working Paper, University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre, 2008-07) Bedford, Richard; Hugo, Graeme
Our contribution to the International Conference “Connecting Worlds: Emigration, Immigration and Development in Insular Spaces”, held in the Azores between 28 and 30 May 2008, examines contemporary mobility of Pacific peoples in a transnational context with reference to processes of out-migration, return, re-migration and the complex systems of circular mobility between island countries as well as to and from countries on the Pacific rim. There are some significant differences between parts of the Pacific region in terms of the access their peoples have to work and residence opportunities outside their island countries. These are reviewed with reference to some major challenges for development in the region: rapid growth of youthful populations; high levels of unemployment; limited markets for local produce; unsustainable levels of extraction of timber, fish and mineral resources; changing climates; and unstable governance systems in some countries.
International trade negotiations and the trans-border movement of people: A review of the literature
(Working Paper, 2008-06) Strutt, Anna; Poot, Jacques; Dubbeldam, Jason
We review the international and New Zealand literatures on the two-way interaction between international migration and agreements designed to enhance cross-border trade or investment. Benefits and costs of migration, to the extent that these may feature in trade and migration negotiations, are discussed. While trade and migration can be substitutes in some contexts, they will be complements in other contexts. Liberalisation of services and the movement of people are likely to offer much more significant gains than liberalisation of remaining barriers to goods trade. Significant scope for liberalisation under GATS mode 4 (the movement of natural persons) may remain. However, temporary migration is already promoted on a unilateral and bilateral basis within immigration policy frameworks that may provide greater flexibility than GATS mode 4. With respect to both trade and migration, the more diverse the exchanging countries are, the greater the economic benefits tend to be. However, greater diversity may also imply greater social costs. This paradox of diversity needs to be addressed through appropriate social policies accompanying enhanced temporary and permanent migration.
Retirement provision for New Zealand women: The relative role of demographic influence
(Working Paper, University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre, 1999-08) Marsault, Anyes
This research contributes to our knowledge of retirement provision by clarifying the obstacles that women face in relation to old age provision. By using multivariate analysis and therefore by controlling for confounding effects, this study has isolated the particular influence of important socio-economic factors. Through continued participation in the labour market, despite their childbearing roles, and the goal of enhancing the quality of their employment, women have an opportunity to strengthen their ability to provide sufficiently themselves for their own old age but this is still even today not a certainty or a source of unlimited support.
Migrants in their family contexts: Application of a methodology
(Working Paper, University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre, 2000-06) Ho, Elsie; Bedford, Richard; Bedford, Charlotte
The composition of immigrant families is a topic which has attracted considerable public and political attention in recent years. In the late 1980s concern was expressed over the size of some households of Pacific Island peoples in New Zealand. In the 1990s a more persistent concern has been with the incidence of what have been called ‘astronaut’ families – families where one of the partners is persistently absent overseas. The ‘astronaut’ family phenomenon has been most commonly associated with Chinese immigrants from Hong Kong and Taiwan. This report uses a novel methodology to examine the incidence of ‘astronaut’ families in New Zealand at the time of the 1991 and 1996 censuses. The methodology is described in some detail in the first section, and it is hoped that the careful attention to the procedures used to examine migrants, who have been identified in the census, in their family contexts will stimulate further research in this area. The second part of the report presents the findings of an initial exploration of 1991 and 1996 census data using the methodology outlined in the first section. It is clear from results of this inquiry that the ‘astronaut’ family phenomenon is well established amongst some components of New Zealand’s Asian community. However, it is not as widespread as media comment in 1995 and 1996, before the 1996 election, suggested. It is important to develop ways of assessing characteristics of immigrant family structures in order to counter unsubstantiated assertions which promote negative stereotypes of immigrant communities. This research, which builds on a project supported by the Marsden Fund in 1997, suggest one fruitful avenue for making more extensive use of census data on immigrants in New Zealand to provide more objective assessment of “migrants in social context”.
Sub-national income differentials, 1986-1996
(Working Paper, University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre, 2000-07) Martin, Barry
This paper deals with regional personal and family incomes, and particularly interregional income inequality. It is primarily a descriptive work. The explanatory framework of why incomes of regions are unequal and changing in the ways observed is not the focus. Regional economic development will be briefly referred to as an explanatory setting, but a discussion of the connections between income patterns and trends, and economic development, is a topic which requires research and data somewhat beyond the scope of this initial, exploratory paper.
Perspectives on international migration, urban social transformation and the research/policy interface
(Working Paper, University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre, 2000-10) Bedford, Richard
This paper examines some characteristics of social transformation in cities on the Pacific rim, especially Los Angeles, Vancouver, Sydney and Auckland. At the beginning of the new millennium, these cities are all experiencing massive social changes associated with the effects of several decades of extensive immigration, substantial restructuring of both the economy and welfare systems and, in some cases, extensive emigration of highly skilled young professionals responding to an intensely competitive market for their skills.
International migration in New Zealand: Context, components and policy issues
(Working Paper, University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre, 2000-10) Bedford, Richard; Ho, Elsie; Lidgard, Jacqueline
This paper explores Aotearoa/New Zealand’s distinctive heritage as both a ‘traditional land of immigration’ as well as a ‘country of emigration’, with particular reference to contemporary policy issues and research initiatives. An underlying theme of the argument is the need for an approach which takes account of all types of movement into and out of the country when researching immigration, both as a process and as a policy domain.
Demographic change and employment in the Central North Island, 1986-1996
(Working Paper, University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre, 2001-04) Bedford, Richard; Lidgard, Jacqueline; Mclaughlin, Bridget; Newell, James
This paper examines some dimensions of demographic and economic change in a region which is generally considered to be one of the most productive and affluent parts of New Zealand’s “heartland”. The paper highlights considerable demographic and economic diversity within the Central North Island. This is a complex region in terms of its population composition, its mix of rural and urban places and industries, and its linkages to other parts of New Zealand’s society and economy. The consistently poorer performance found in a wide range of indices of social and economic change in this part of New Zealand is very sobering.
Solo parenting in New Zealand: Who are the children?
(Working Paper, University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre, 2001-08) Hutton, Deborah
The purpose of this paper is to begin to explore some of the recent trends and attributes of sole parenting in New Zealand, but from a from a child-centered rather than a parentfocused perspective. Reports that the proportions of children living in sole parent families have significantly increased have been the source of much concern, and even ‘moral panic’, over recent quinquennia. Sole parent households made up nine per cent of all households in 1976, and were up to 19 per cent by 1991. Advocates of family values allege that the traditional family unit is breaking down, and that this will have negative consequences for society and for our children. Previous research into the issue of sole parent families has been largely based on census information, producing snapshot-like pictures of the situation at one point in time. This paper begins to offer a more thorough look into some of the trends and processes at work by adopting the benefits of a longitudinal, retrospective survey that traces cohorts of children through their childhood. By following different cohorts through their family experiences during childhood, we can begin to build up a picture about if and how experiences of sole parenting have changed over time, and can begin to speculate about the situation for today’s children.
New Zealand jobs, 1976 - 1996: A demographic accounting
(Working Paper, University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre, 2001-09) Honey, Jeff
Over the last decade or so New Zealand has been through an era of radical political, economic, social and demographic change. In part this has been driven by economic restructuring. But in part, this had been an acceleration of a long-term industrial transformation, which had been a part of New Zealand culture for some time (Thompson 1985). This has taken the form of a long-term shift of employment out of the secondary sector and into the tertiary sector industries. Moreover, in the post-war period there has been a gradual further decline in the proportion of jobs in the primary sectors despite continuous economic improvements of agricultural activities. This is demonstrated proportionately more in terms of its contribution to exports and to the distribution of Gross Domestic Production across sectors, than in high percentages of the labour force in the primary sector. In this and other ways, New Zealand has been subject to the structural changes experienced by other developed countries. The major difference has been the speed of the policy-driven restructuring over the last decade in New Zealand. This paper turns to some basic accounting methods to analyse increases and decreases in job numbers by industrial sector between 1976 and 1996. Analysis by gender, ethnicity and broad age groups will provide a more detailed picture of the major movements. Secondly, in order to assess whether there are gaps between employment and supply, these increases and decreases will be compared with data which indicate levels of "demographic supply". These data give, as it were, an "expected" figure for change in the numbers in each category. and this can be compared with the "observed" figures. Demographic supply is defined here as the percentage growth between the periods analysed in the population at working ages (15-64 years). This paper also looks at the proportionate shifts between censuses in the number of workers by age, gender and ethnicity in a particular industry or broad sector. This analysis is strengthened by comparing the observed "gains and losses" which might have been expected through natural growth and attrition. What these data imply, therefore, is whether or not the labour market is dysfunctional in the way it can respond to a combination of gains and losses because of under- and over-supply of workers, plus the absorptive capacity of a given segment of the labour market.
Researching characteristics of people moving into and out of the Western Bay of Plenty and Tauranga districts: Some methodological issues
(Working Paper, University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre, 2002-04) Lidgard, Jacqueline; McLeay, Colin
The Western Bay of Plenty (WBOP), has one of the fastest growing populations in New Zealand. This Discussion Paper details a methodology that has been used to conduct a survey of people moving into and out of the Western Bay of Plenty between October 2000 and September 2001.
Transfers of capital and shifts in New Zealand’s regional population distribution, 1840-1996
(Working Paper, University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre, 2002-06) Pool, Ian
When researchers attempt to study population and development, and particularly the role of migrations, the focus is normally on national level trends, frequently involving time-series analyses of more generic indicators of population change and economic growth. The migration field does, of course, deal with questions of the integration of migrants, at a macro-level evaluating their impact on social diversity and cohesion by turning to ecological-level indices covering clustering. This paper takes a different approach in part inspired by the model developed by Le Heron, Britton and Parson to analyse a related question: restructuring. This they saw as likely to be induced and thus frequently exogenous to a particular socio-demographic system. For example, policies effecting restructuring at a regional level will often come from some central agency external to the region, or even outside the geographic territory or country. There are also other changes that can be spontaneous in nature, arising from a mix of factors and situations endogenous to a given area.1 In both cases, so these authors argue (1992:5), we must deal with “processes operating at various geographic scales...”. To this end this paper thus employs as demographic variables indices plotting subnational changes, thereby recognising that population dynamics at the national-level are likely to be a composite of complex societal forces varying from region to region. For much of this essay, which is more an exercise in setting research agendas than a full-scale empirical analysis, the regional breakdown is very broad, attempting to distinguish between the more dominant and less dominant poles at any time.
Why were New Zealand levels of life-expectation so high at the dawn of the twentieth century?
(Working Paper, University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre, 2002-09) Pool, Ian; Cheung, Jit
With population ageing becoming an issue of major importance for societies in the developed countries, in both the scientific and policy communities there is widespread interest in the determinants of these structural changes. The focus has been on declines in fertility, arguably the major causal factor, but increasingly analyses are turning to the other major determinant, improving survivorship. This paper relates to this aspect of ageing but not to fertility per se.
Components of regional population growth, 1986-2001
(Working Paper, University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre, 2004-05) Pool, Ian; Baxendine, Sandra; Cochrane, William
The vitality of a region is frequently assessed by looking at its population growth pattern. This is seen as being linked to its economic and social vibrancy. To better understand the dynamics of this growth pattern it is necessary to decompose population growth into the contributions of natural increase (births less deaths) and migration (both domestic and international). This provides a demographic accounting of the factors of population change which we use to analyse the degree to which the levels and impacts of these factors differ between the Regional Council Areas of New Zealand. We find large variations between Regional Council Areas in overall population growth for the three quinquennia between 1986 and 2001. The Auckland region experienced the largest growth, coming both from high natural increase and international migration, while the “sunbelt” regions of Bay of Plenty, Nelson-Tasman and Marlborough had high growth, but driven by internal migration. In other regions, such as Gisborne, West Coast and Southland population growth declined.
Rural trajectories: Diversification and farm-community linkages in Whakatane District, 1999-2003
(Working Paper, University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre, 2004-07) Joseph, Alun E.; Lidgard, Jacqueline; Bedford, Richard
In New Zealand and elsewhere the interdependence of development in farming and the broader rural community can no longer be taken for granted. Five years ago we conducted a comparative analysis of the interrelated dynamics of change in agriculture and rural communities in the Central North Island. The observed trends from this research suggested that: (i) long and short cycles of change affecting the rural sector are promoting greater diversity in agriculture-community relations; (ii) adjustment processes are ongoing; and (iii) current evidence does not point unambiguously to either the decoupling or re-linking of agriculture and the broader rural community. This paper explores further the ambiguity encountered in the earlier research through a follow-up case study grounded in Whakatane District. The key finding is that as a result of individual effort and the will to diversify, the rural economy of Whakatane District is buoyant and farming remains the major economic activity. However, despite the apparent persistence of strong and pervasive agriculture-community linkages, the district remains vulnerable to forces embedded in short and long cycles of change. In terms of short-cycle change, the pressure on dairy farming from price fluctuation and the increasing attractiveness of conversion to horticulture is affecting the agricultural side of the equation, while the proliferation of lifestyle blocks is notable on the community side. In terms of long-cycle change, the influence of a renaissance of Maori rural living is beginning to be felt on the community side, while the effect of climate change and associated weather extremes is beginning to impact on agriculture.
Solidarity across generations in New Zealand: Factors influencing parental support for children within a three-generational context
(Working Paper, University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre, 2004-10) Hillcoat-Nallétamby, Sarah; Dharmalingam, Arunachalam
Interest in ascertaining the nature and extent of intergenerational exchanges between those in mid-life, and members of their kinship network has arisen because demographic, social and policy changes have brought into question the ability of individuals in this stage of the family and individual life course to respond to what may be the conflicting support needs of older and younger generations. Trends of delayed childbearing for example, suggest that at mid-life, individuals are increasingly likely to be involved in parenting roles. At the same time, as they contemplate their own pre-retirement needs, they may also be more involved with the caring needs of ageing parents who are living longer. It has thus been argued that the mid-life period carries the potential for complex, and perhaps competing intergenerational requirements for support and care, compromising the ability of those in this life stage to show their solidarity towards both younger and older kin. Research on intergenerational relations has focused mainly on the adult child and elderly parent dyad in the context of population ageing and much less work has been done to understand the nature of intergenerational exchanges in the context of more complex structures extending beyond dyads to include triads of three co-surviving generations. This paper addresses this lacuna by establishing whether, in the context of a kinship structure of three co-surviving generations, the likelihood of a child receiving assistance from their mid-life parent is influenced by the characteristics of an ascending generation, the mid-life respondent’s own ageing parent. Empirical investigation draws on the theoretical framework of micro-level, inter-generational solidarity developed by Bengtson and others, in which exchanges of assistance are conceptualised as bonds of functional solidarity. Underlying the analysis is therefore an investigation of the premise that mid-life individuals are at the centre of competing inter-generational requirements. Data are from the 1997 New Zealand survey ‘Transactions in the Mid-Life Family’, a sample of 750 males and females aged between 40 and 54. Analysis is based on a sub-population of 310 respondents with at least one surviving ageing parent or in-law and one child aged over 15, none of whom live together. Multivariate logistic regression techniques are used and the dependant variable of functional solidarity is represented as a three-category variable of emotional, in-kind and financial support. Findings indicate that when an ageing parent’s bond with the mid-life respondent is characterised by emotional support, this also enhances the child’s chances of benefiting from all dimensions of parental support. Likewise, children are more likely to benefit from in-kind help if their own grandparents also receive it. Results do not clearly suggest that a greater number of elderly members in a kin network necessarily represent a drain on the mid-life respondent’s resources, at least not those of an emotional nature. Life-course specific support requirements of younger and older generations may mean that mid-life individuals in fact respond to complementary rather than competing needs.
A meta-analytic assessment of the effect of immigration on wages
(Working Paper, University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre, 2004-12) Longhi, Simonetta; Nijkamp, Peter; Poot, Jacques
In our increasingly interconnected and open world, international migration is becoming an important socio-economic phenomenon for many countries. Since the early 1980s, many studies have been undertaken of the impact of immigration on host labour markets. Borjas (2003) noted that the estimated effect of immigration on the wage of native workers varies widely from study to study and sometimes even within the same study. In addition, these effects cluster around zero. Such a small effect is a rather surprising outcome, given that in a closed competitive labour market an increase in labour supply may be expected to exert a downward pressure on wages. We revisit this issue by applying meta-analytic techniques to a sample of eighteen papers, which altogether generated 348 estimates of the percentage change in the wage of a native worker with respect to a one percentage point increase in the ratio of immigrants over native workers. While many studies in our sample employ US data, estimates are also obtained from Germany, The Netherlands, France, Norway, Austria, Israel and Australia. Our analysis shows that results vary across countries and are inter alia related to the type of modelling approach. Technical issues such as publication bias and quality of the estimates are addressed as well. A negative but small effect of immigration on wages of native groups with similar skills appears rather robust.
Measuring the economic impact of immigration: A scoping paper
(Working Paper, University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre, 2005-02) Poot, Jacques; Cochrane, William
This discussion paper has three objectives. Firstly, it provides a brief review of recent international empirical research on the labour market impact of immigration. The synthesis of this literature is facilitated by reference to the results from a recent meta-analysis of the impact of immigration on wages. Secondly, the paper briefly reviews international research on other dimensions of the economic impact of immigration, namely productivity and technical change, trade and international relations, the fiscal impact, socio-economic impacts and externalities, and economy-wide (general equilibrium) effects. The approach adopted in considering each of these impacts is to identify the main issues associated with the particular impact, followed by key international references and, where available, New Zealand references on the particular type of impact. The gaps in NZ research are then identified along with any difficulties with the data available for replicating the international studies in New Zealand. Thirdly, the paper seeks to identify feasible (in terms of data availability) suggestions for further research that would add to our knowledge of the economic impact of immigration in New Zealand.
The ‘ins and outs’ of work – diversity or homogeneity in New Zealand women’s employment patterns?
(Working Paper, University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre, 2005-03) Hillcoat-Nallétamby, Sarah; Baxendine, Sandra
New Zealand has experienced sustained increases in women’s labour force participation since the post-war period. The Census of Population and Dwellings and the Household Labour Force Survey provide aggregate-level insights into labour force behaviour, relying on the compilation of cross-sectional data to provide indicators of long-term trends to women’s employment. What these data sources do not offer are clear pictures of the sequencing of women’s employment across the life course, in terms of periods in and out of work. These patterns have however been identified as key factors influencing women’s capacity to save and the persistence of gendered occupational status and earnings disparities. When observed across time, work patterns also provide insights to the changing overall lifetime attachment of women to the labour market. Using data from the 1995 sample survey New Zealand Women: Family, Employment, Education, we present descriptive findings on the work patterns of women born between 1936 and 1965, and use graphical techniques to depict these patterns in terms of spells in and out of work. A cohort perspective is taken. We then proceed to summarise the details of these individual work histories using summary measures which can then be corelated with potential explanatory factors.

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