Business confidence and cyclical turning points: a Markov-switching approach

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dc.contributor.authorHolmes, Mark J.
dc.contributor.authorSilverstone, Brian
dc.date.accessioned2010-07-01T23:01:23Z
dc.date.available2010-07-01T23:01:23Z
dc.date.issued2010
dc.description.abstractMarkov regime-switching analysis is used to consider the relationship between business confidence and the probability of turning points in cyclical GDP. We find, in an application to New Zealand, that confidence is related to both the deepness and duration of the business cycle and is asymmetric regarding the probability of the economy remaining in a given regime. Overall, the New Zealand business confidence series is a useful indicator of cyclical turning points.en_NZ
dc.identifier.citationHolmes, M.J. & Silverston, B. (2010). Business confidence and cyclical turning points: a Markov-switching approach. Applied Economics Letters, 17(3), 229-233.en_NZ
dc.identifier.doi10.1080/13504850701720247en_NZ
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10289/4076
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherRoutledgeen_NZ
dc.relation.isPartOfApplied Economics Lettersen_NZ
dc.relation.urihttp://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all?content=10.1080/13504850701720247en_NZ
dc.subjectNew Zealanden_NZ
dc.subjectMarkov-switchingen_NZ
dc.subjectbusinessen_NZ
dc.subjectbusiness confidenceen_NZ
dc.subjectbusiness cyclesen_NZ
dc.titleBusiness confidence and cyclical turning points: a Markov-switching approachen_NZ
dc.typeJournal Articleen_NZ
dspace.entity.typePublication
pubs.begin-page229en_NZ
pubs.end-page233en_NZ
pubs.issue3en_NZ
pubs.volume17en_NZ

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