Natural Amenities and Age Related Population Change in New Zealand.

Abstract

Modern day migration literature suggests that natural amenities play a significant role in attracting migrants and thereby influencing population change. Empirical studies however, often find natural amenities of little significance. It can be argued that these conflicting findings are a result of the empirical complexity of representing amenities as well as the way in which causal relationships have been identified.

The effects of population change are not evenly distributed across New Zealand, with growth typically being focused on the main metropolitan areas, while other areas are experiencing population stagnation or decline. Queenstown is experiencing rapid population growth in all ages (with the exception of 20-29). This uncharacteristic migration is argued to partially be due to the regions high level of natural amenity.

This study uses three separate natural amenity indices as well as proxies for the main migration related drivers of population change in order to answer our central question; Are natural amenities a significant factor in determining age related population change in New Zealand? Global and exploratory local models have been run for six age groups each representing a demographic group in New Zealand. While there is much room to improve these models in the future the local models have identified several significant areas in New Zealand where there is predominately a positive relationship between natural amenities and population change.