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An intertemporally-consistent and arbitrage-free version of the Nelson and Siegel class of yield curve models

Abstract
This article derives a generic, intertemporally-consistent, and arbitrage-free version of the popular class of yield curve models originally introduced by Nelson and Siegel (1987). The derived model has a theoretical foundation (conferred via the Heath, Jarrow and Morton (1992) framework) that allows it to be used in applications that involve an implicit or explicit time-series context. As an example of the potentialapplication of the model, the intertemporal consistency is exploited to derive a theoretical time-series process that may be used to forecast the yield curve. The empirical application of the forecasting framework to United States data results in out-of-sample forecasts that outperform the random walk over a sample period of almost 50 years, for forecast horizons ranging from six months to three years.
Type
Working Paper
Type of thesis
Series
Department of Economics Working Paper Series
Citation
Krippner, L. (2005). An intertemporally-consistent and arbitrage-free version of the Nelson and Siegel class of yield curve models. (Department of Economics Working Paper Series, Number 1/05). Hamilton, New Zealand: University of Waikato.
Date
2005-02
Publisher
Degree
Supervisors
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