Local Source Tsunami Inundation Modelling for Poverty Bay, Gisborne

Abstract

After the Boxing Day 2004 Sumatran Tsunami, a review of tsunami hazard and risk for New Zealand identified Gisborne as the urban area with the greatest risk. Gisborne could experience gt;500 fatalities and extensive damage to infrastructure during a severe tsunami. The severity of a tsunami is likely to be low for distance sources given the effectiveness of the Pacific Tsunami Warning System. However, there is a substantial risk from local sources, as no local warning system of any kind exists.

Prompt evacuation is probably the most cost-effective tsunami mitigation strategy available for New Zealand coastal locations, including Gisborne. This requires both knowledge of the extent of tsunami inundation, and sufficient warning of the tsunami arrival. Hence, there are two main objectives for this investigation:

1. Determine the likely extent of tsunami inundation for Gisborne City and surrounding populated coastal locations in Poverty Bay, using a combination of hydrodynamic tsunami modelling and GIS. The modelling will simulate historical events, particularly the largest historical tsunami, the May 1947 local tsunami. Modelling will consider potential events based on the Maximum Credible Earthquake for local sources associated with the Hikurangi Deformation Front.

2. Create inundation maps of Poverty Bay that can be used for future town planning and emergency plans.