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dc.contributor.authorvan Heerde, Harald J.
dc.contributor.authorSrinivasan, Shuba
dc.contributor.authorDekimpe, Marnik G.
dc.identifier.citationvan Heerde, H.J., Srinivasan, S. & Dekimpe, M.G. (2010). Estimating cannibalization rates for pioneering innovations. Marketing Science, 29(6), 1024-1039.en_NZ
dc.description.abstractTo evaluate the success of a new product, managers need to determine how much of its new demand is due to cannibalizing the firm’s other products, rather than drawing from competition or generating primary demand. We introduce a time-varying vector error-correction model to decompose the base sales of a new product into its constituent sources. The model allows managers to estimate cannibalization effects and calculate the new product’s net demand, which may be considerably less than its total demand. We apply our methodology to the introduction of the Lexus RX300 using detailed car transaction data. This case is especially interesting because the Lexus RX300 was the first crossover sport utility vehicle (SUV), implying that its demand could come from both the luxury SUV and the luxury sedan categories. Because Lexus was active in both categories, there was a double cannibalization potential. We show how the contribution of the different demand sources varies over time and discuss the managerial implications for both the focal brand and its competitors.en_NZ
dc.subjectnew producten_NZ
dc.subjectaggregate response modelsen_NZ
dc.subjecttime-series modelsen_NZ
dc.subjectmissing dataen_NZ
dc.subjectBayesian methodsen_NZ
dc.subjectdynamic linear modelsen_NZ
dc.titleEstimating cannibalization rates for pioneering innovationsen_NZ
dc.typeJournal Articleen_NZ
dc.relation.isPartOfMarketing Scienceen_NZ

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