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dc.contributor.authorBuck, Caitlin E.
dc.contributor.authorHigham, Thomas F.G.
dc.contributor.authorLowe, David J.
dc.date.accessioned2011-04-05T04:52:35Z
dc.date.available2011-04-05T04:52:35Z
dc.date.issued2003
dc.identifier.citationBuck, C.E., Higham, T.F.G. & Lowe, D.J. (2003). Bayesian tools for tephrochronology. The Holocene, 13(5), 639-647.en_NZ
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10289/5237
dc.description.abstractIt is suggested that Bayesian statistical methods for radiocarbon data interpretation, already widely used in archaeology, also have potential to improve the dating of tephra layers and hence enhance their use for tephrochronology. By re-analysing data from a recently published paper in which the authors sought to identify the calendar date of the eruption of fourteenth-century AD Kaharoa Tephra, a key marker in New Zealand prehistory, it is shown that Bayesian methods can be used to draw together a coherent collection of radiocarbon data, undertake formal outlier detection, and include prior information. Regardless of the calibration curve adopted, the distribution of likely dates for the Kaharoa eruption is multimodal. By including prior information from wiggle-matched dendrochronology, the uncertainty on the estimate of the calendar date is reduced from a range of about 100 years to about 25 years (i.e., 648-623 cal. BP, with modes at 638 and 632 cal. BP). Using sensitivity analysis, however, it is shown that such estimates are affected by the quality and nature of the prior information available. As a result, we urge tephrochronologists to seek fastidiously both high-quality radiocarbon data and reliable stratigraphic sequences that might inform future geochronological model building.en_NZ
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherArnold Publishersen_NZ
dc.relation.urihttp://hol.sagepub.com/content/13/5/639en_NZ
dc.subjectradiocarbon datingen_NZ
dc.subjecttephrochronologyen_NZ
dc.subjectBayesian statisticsen_NZ
dc.subjectgeochronologyen_NZ
dc.subjectKaharoa Tephraen_NZ
dc.subjectarchaeologyen_NZ
dc.subjectHoloceneen_NZ
dc.subjectNew Zealanden_NZ
dc.titleBayesian tools for tephrochronologyen_NZ
dc.typeJournal Articleen_NZ
dc.identifier.doi10.1191/0959683603hl652ften_NZ
dc.relation.isPartOfThe Holoceneen_NZ
pubs.begin-page639en_NZ
pubs.elements-id29455
pubs.end-page647en_NZ
pubs.issue5en_NZ
pubs.volume13en_NZ


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