Energy Investment and Emissions Planning for Electricity Generation in Myanmar

Abstract

Hydropower plays a critical role in supplying electricity generation in the developing nation of Myanmar. Over the next 15 years (2015 – 2030) with anticipated rapid social and economic development in Myanmar, the demand for electricity is expected to increase from 23718 GWh in 2015 to 136605 GWh in 2030, which is nearly a six-fold increase. The aim of this thesis is to investigate the critical role of hydropower in the Myanmar electricity sector in meeting projected demand in 2030. As a result this thesis presents a detailed analysis of electricity generation in Myanmar using chiefly two methods: Energy Return on Investment (EROI) and Carbon Emissions Pinch Analysis (CEPA). The contributions of this thesis to literature and Myanmar include: (1) the development of a low energy investment, low emissions roadmap towards achieving electricity demand in 2030 for Myanmar; (2) the identification of 20 storage-type hydropower stations that with excellent EROI values and low energy payback times, which help form the foundation of the future development roadmap; and (3), the determination of dam-type-specific empirical correlations for EROI by inputting the estimated electricity output (based on head, water flow, overall efficiency and capacity factor) and dam volume. By implementing the recommendation of a further 20 hydropower plants, beyond the currently installed and under-construction plants, Myanmar can achieve its ambitious 2030 electricity supply target, 136605 GWh, in which a major of generation comes from hydropower (69%). The remaining generation comes from natural gas (24%), coal 3340 GWh (2.5%) and other renewables such as solar, wind and biomass (4.5%). Compared to the Myanmar’s current National Electricity Master Plan (2014-2030) adopted by Ministry of Electric Power, the recommendations in this thesis can lead to 41% mitigation of carbon emissions with 7% less energy investment.