Searching for patterns in political event sequences: Experiments with the KEDs database

Abstract

This paper presents an empirical study on the possibility of discovering interesting event sequences and sequential rules in a large database of international political events. A data mining algorithm first presented by Mannila and Toivonen (1996), has been implemented and extended, which is able to search for generalized episodes in such event databases. Experiments conducted with this algorithm on the Kansas Event Data System (KEDS) database, an event data set covering interactions between countries in the Persian Gulf region, are described. Some qualitative and quantitative results are reported, and experiences with strategies for reducing the problem complexity and focusing on the search on interesting subsets of events are described.