Carbon emissions reduction and net energy generation analysis in the New Zealand electricity sector through to 2050

Abstract

Carbon Emissions Pinch Analysis (CEPA) and Energy Return On Energy Investment (ERoEI) analysis are combined to investigate the feasibility of New Zealand reaching and maintaining a renewables electricity target of above 80% by 2025 and 2050, while also increasing electricity generation at an annual rate of 1.5%, and with an increase of electricity generation in the distant future to accommodate a 50% switch to electric vehicle transportation. To meet New Zealand’s growing electricity demand up to 2025 the largest growth in renewable generation is expected to come from geothermal generation (four-fold increase) followed by wind and hydro. To meet expected demand up to 2050 and beyond, including electric vehicle transportation, geothermal generation will expand to 17% of total generation, wind to 16%, and other renewables, such as marine and biomass, will make up about 4%. Including hydro, the total renewable generation in 2050 is expected to reach 82%.