Demographic Turbulence in the Arab World: Implications for Development Policy

Abstract

The Arab Spring's hallmarks of volatility and ‘youthfulness’ thwart sustained development, political cohesion and peace. Demographic ‘youthfulness’, due to recent high fertility, is accompanied by rapid growth. But the backstory is even bleaker. Cohort flows, producing large population waves, batter successive life-cycle stages, generating demands for services, markets, resources and capital. To overcome this, policies directed at youth (15–24) are pivotal; failure to integrate youth into the economy and society results in disadvantaged middle-aged parenting populations. This threatens longer-term, sustainable development and triggers political volatility. Yet, as is shown in this article, the international development community has failed to formulate appropriate strategies.