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NIDEA undertakes research at the interface of population and economics to help inform choices and responses to the demographic, social and economic interactions that are shaping New Zealand's future. This collection houses the Working Papers published by the Institute.
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Publication Labour mobility and diaspora: An overview of Solomon Islands’ historical regulatory experience, 1850s-2013(National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis (NIDEA), 2014-02) Craig, David; Bedford, Richard; Gegeo, David; Rodi, Patricia; Miller, Rebecca; Friesen, WardWith less than 4,500 of its population of around 600,000 living overseas in 2013, the Solomon Islands ranks 138th in the world for diaspora formation. At these levels the scale of the diaspora as a proportion of population (0.8 percent) remains lower than it was in the early 20th century, when more than 5,000 Solomon islanders were compulsorily repatriated from Queensland under early Australian Commonwealth legislation. This working paper retraces and reframes the history of Solomon Islands labour mobility and diaspora formation since the 1850s, considering it in relation to the wider institutional and macro-regulatory machineries of three phases or regimes of economic, trade and mobility regulation. These regimes are referred to in this paper as: 1.liberal imperial, 2. national territorial and 3. International neoliberal. We argue that Solomon Islanders’ participation in labour mobility has been substantial under all three phases, but that international mobility and diaspora formation only developed significantly under the liberal imperial regime. Even then, however, its development proved precarious. The ways regional actors and governments acting within the different regimes have framed and segmented labour markets continue to powerfully shape mobility and diaspora outcomes. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of the situation to date for future economic development and security in Solomon Islands.Publication The demographic implications of climate change for Aotearoa New Zealand: A review(Working Paper, National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis (NIDEA), 2013-07) Cameron, Michael PatrickDespite near universal recognition of the importance of climate change impacts on future generations, to date there has been no dedicated research on the effects of climate change on the population distribution in Aotearoa New Zealand. This paper reports on a review of international literature on the demographic impacts of climate change, with a particular focus on the likely implications for New Zealand. The paper argues that the greatest impacts are likely to be felt in terms of internal migration changes, with smaller but still significant effects on international migration and mortality rates.Publication A socio-demographic profile of Māori living in Australia(Working Paper, National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis (NIDEA), 2013-06) Kukutai, Tahu; Pawar, Shefali ShashikantThis report provides a comprehensive demographic and socio-economic profile of the Māori population in Australia using data from the 2011 Australia Census of Population and Housing. The purpose is to provide an evidence base with which to inform future policy approaches with respect to Māori in Australia. It focuses on five key areas: Population size and composition; Identity and culture; Year of arrival and citizenship; Education and work; Lone parenting and unpaid childcare. Comparisons are undertaken with Māori in the 2006 Australia Census, as well as with two reference groups: the total Australia population and migrant non-Māori New Zealanders. Where appropriate, we also distinguish Māori migrants born in New Zealand and Māori born in Australia. This captures important differences within the Māori population in Australia that have been under-examined in previous studies.Publication Māori and the [potential] demographic dividend(Working Paper, National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis (NIDEA), 2011-06) Jackson, NatalieThis paper outlines a recently articulated concept in the demographic literature known as the ‘demographic dividend’, and connects it with key features of Māori and non- Māori demography. The dividend arises – or has the potential to arise - as each population passes through a particular point in its demographic transition. During these years, the maximum proportion of the population moves into the key working and income-earning age groups, and the minimum (comprised of youth and the elderly) is notionally dependent. With proactive and timely investment in the youthful base of the population, there is potential to convert the demographic dividend into two economic windfalls, the first arising as fertility decline causes youthful dependency to fall and the last large waves of young adults flood into the working age population, the second as the latter age and move on into the higher income earning age groups. However the window of opportunity to invest in the first dividend is fleeting, while failure to invest in that stage seriously compromises the second. This paper shows that for the Māori population, despite its relative youth, the first opportunity is already coming to an end and with it the potential gains of the second. But it also argues that there is a third window of opportunity which holds particular promise for Māori. This period will also be fleeting, but is arising in both absolute and relative terms as the relatively youthful Māori population co-exists alongside its structurally older counterpart, and together (with other New Zealanders) comprise an ‘economic dividend system’ that produces the potential for a ‘collateral dividend’.Publication The demographic forces shaping New Zealand’s future. What population ageing [really] means(Working Paper, National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis (NIDEA), 2011-05) Jackson, NatalieThis paper outlines the key demographic forces shaping New Zealand’s future. It ranges broadly across birth rates, life expectancy and migration to show how this converging demography will result in a regionally-disparate future. It identifies a migration-driven bite in New Zealand’s age structure across the young adult ages that is pronounced in non-urban areas, and argues that while rural regions have long lost young adults and sun-belt regions gained older, what differs is that this phenomenon is now occurring alongside population ageing, rendering such age structures no longer conducive to growth. The converging trends will not only make responding to baby boomer retirement more difficult but will increase competition for workers and push up labour and consumption costs. With the exception of larger urban areas and some retirement zones, it shows that sub national growth in much of New Zealand has already ended and that this scenario will continue to unfold until zero growth or population decline embraces all but the major urban areas. This is despite a national growth rate which is currently near equal the annual global growth rate. The paper posits that it is time to re-evaluate the question ‘when does population growth ‘end’?’