NIDEA Working Papers

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://researchcommons.waikato.ac.nz/handle/10289/6537

The National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis (NIDEA) was launched in November 2010 as an extension of its predecessor, The Population Studies Centre (PSC). It was then rebranded in December 2021 as Te Ngira Institute for Population Research (current). NIDEA conducted research at the interface of population and economics to help inform choices and responses to the demographic, social and economic interactions that are shaping Aotearoa New Zealand's future. This collection houses the Working Papers published by the Institute during its tenure 2010-2021.

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The Geographic Classification for Health: Methodology and classification report
(Otago University, 2021) Whitehead, Jesse; Davie, Gabrielle; de Graaf, Brandon; Crengle, Sue; Smith, Michelle; Lawrenson, Ross; Fearnley, Dave; Farrell, Noella; Nixon, Garry
The GCH is based on population and drive time data that was used in the development of the Urban Accessibility (UA) classification (Statistics New Zealand, 2020). The UA is in turn based on the Statistical Standard for Geographic Areas 2018 (SSGA18) which includes the urban rural 2018 (UR2018) classification (Statistics New Zealand, 2018). The authors of this report have applied a framework to the UA classification that considers a health services discourse to determine appropriate population and drive time thresholds. We have tested both the quantitative and ‘on-the-ground’ validity of the GCH, in partnership with the Ministry of Health’s National Rural Health Advisory Group (NRHAG). The GCH is comprised of five categories, two urban and three rural, that reflect degrees of reducing urban influence and increasing rurality. The GCH applies these categories to all of New Zealand’s Statistical Area 1s (SA1s, small statistical areas which are the output geography for population data) on a scale from ‘Urban 1’ to ‘Urban 2’ based on population size, and from “Rural 1’ to ‘Rural 3’ based on drive time to their closest major, large, medium, and small* (*As defined in the Statistical Standard for Geographic Areas 2018 (Statistics New Zealand, 2018)) urban areas. Like the UA, the GCH is based on population size and density, with drive time used to indicate increasing rurality. Unlike the UA, which is a generic classification, the population and drive time thresholds used in the GCH have been developed from a health perspective, in consultation with more than 300 individuals from 20 organisations. The nature of the functional relationships between urban areas and rural surrounds have also been considered through a health lens. In this paper we discuss concepts and issues with previous ‘generic’ urban-rural classifications being used in health research in Aotearoa New Zealand. We also describe the GCH methodology and classification, discuss limitations, and illustrate the GCH with maps.
How differing methods of ascribing ethnicity and socio-economic status affect risk estimates for hospitalisation with infectious disease
(Cambridge University Press (CUP), 2019) Hobbs, Mark R.; Atatoa Carr, Polly; Fa'alili-Fidow, Jacinta; Pillai, Avinesh; Morton, Susan M. B.; Grant, Cameron C.
Significant ethnic and socio-economic disparities exist in infectious diseases (IDs) rates in New Zealand, so accurate measures of these characteristics are required. This study compared methods of ascribing ethnicity and socio-economic status. Children in the Growing Up in New Zealand longitudinal cohort were ascribed to self-prioritised, total response and single-combined ethnic groups. Socio-economic status was measured using household income, and both census-derived and survey-derived deprivation indices. Rates of ID hospitalisation were compared using linked administrative data. Self-prioritised ethnicity was simplest to use. Total response accounted for mixed ethnicity and allowed overlap between groups. Single combined ethnicity required aggregation of small groups to maintain power but offered greater detail. Regardless of the method used, Māori and Pacific children, and children in the most socio-economically deprived households had a greater risk of ID hospitalisation. Risk differences between self-prioritised and total response methods were not significant for Māori and Pacific children but single-combined ethnicity revealed a diversity of risk within these groups. Household income was affected by non-random missing data. The census derived deprivation index offered a high level of completeness with some risk of multicollinearity and concerns regarding the ecological fallacy. The survey-derived index required extra questions but was acceptable to participants and provided individualised data. Based on these results, the use of single-combined ethnicity and an individualised survey-derived index of deprivation are recommended where sample size and data structure allow it.
Telomere length in early childhood is associated with sex and ethnicity
(Springer Nature, 2019) Ly, Kien; Walker, Caroline; Berry, Sarah; Snell, Russell; Marks, Emma; Thayer, Zaneta; Atatoa-Carr, Polly; Morton, Susan M. B.
Telomeres are repetitive DNA sequences at the end of chromosomes that function to protect chromosomes from degradation. Throughout the life course, telomere length decreases with age and is influenced by environmental factors and health conditions. This study aimed to determine the relative telomere lengths in a diverse cohort of about 4000 four-year-old children in New Zealand. Linear regression was used to investigate the relationship between telomere length, child gender, ethnicity, paternal age and deprivation. We observed substantial variation in telomere length according to sex and self-identified ethnicity. Telomere length was longer in females compared to males (coefficient of 0.042, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.024–0.060). European children had shorter telomere than both the indigenous Māori (coefficient of 0.03, CI 0.007–0.055) and Pacific children (coefficient of 0.15, CI 0.12–0.18). The data suggest that telomere lengths are highly variable and variability between individuals arise from early age, influenced partly by sex and ethnicity. Longer telomeres in indigenous Māori and Pacific children may reflect the heritability of telomere length in genetically less complex populations. This study increases our understanding of telomere dynamics in young children since the majority of telomere studies are conducted in adults.
Critical reflection for researcher–community partnership effectiveness: The He Pikinga Waiora process evaluation tool guiding the implementation of chronic condition interventions in Indigenous communities
(CSIRO Publishing, 2019) Rarere, Moana; Oetzel, John G.; Masters-Awatere, Bridgette; Scott, Nina; Wihapi, Ray; Manuel, Carey; Gilbert, Rewa
Critically reflecting on researcher–community partnerships is a key component in implementing chronic condition interventions in Indigenous communities. This paper draws on the results and learnings from a process evaluation that measures how well two research–community partnerships have followed the He Pikinga Waiora (HPW) Implementation Framework while co-designing chronic condition interventions in primary care. The HPW framework is centred on Indigenous self-determination and knowledge surrounded by community engagement, cultural centredness, systems thinking and integrated knowledge translation. The evaluation included in-depth interviews and online surveys with 10 team members. The findings demonstrate that the HPW framework was followed well, with strengths particularly in community engagement and relationship building. Areas for improvement included systems thinking and integrated knowledge translation to support sustainability of the interventions. The need for partnerships to use process evaluation results to support critical reflection is asserted, which helps build strong trust and synergy, power sharing and effective and sustainable implementation practices. It is concluded that the HPW framework is well suited to evaluating implementation of health interventions in primary care as it assists in the facilitation of better collaboration between researchers and Indigenous communities, and encourages the implementation team to reflect on power and privilege.
The estimation and interpretation of coefficients in panel gravity models of migration
(Springer Nature, 2019) Cameron, Michael Patrick; Poot, Jacques
In this paper, we demonstrate that the conventional ordinary least squares and fixed effects estimators of classical gravity models of migration are biased, and that the interpretation of coefficients in the fixed effects gravity model is typically incorrect. We then present a best linear unbiased (BLU) estimator for gravity models of migration, and illustrate its application with inter-regional data from New Zealand. The results demonstrate that the standard ordinary least squares and fixed effect models lead to biased coefficients on population. Alternative estimates that are BLU are provided for a data generating process with fixed origin and destination effects. The coefficients on population must be interpreted in this model as growth rate effects rather than level effects. Our findings also have significance for other types of spatial interaction modelling.
He Pikinga Waiora Kimi Ora lifestyle programme: Case study of a successful community-based indigenous diabetes intervention
(Pasifika Medical Association Group (PMAG), 2021) Masters-Awatere, Bridgette; Cassim, Shemana; Tamatea, Jade; Scott, Nina; Simpson, Chae; Paekau, Cherie
AIM: To co-design and implement a whānau-centred, community-based lifestyle programme (Kimi Ora) intended to ensure no worsening of HbA1c and to improve wellbeing for Māori whānau and communities with diabetes or pre-diabetes. METHODS: Māori healthcare providers, community members, research advisors and wider stakeholders used a co-design process underpinned by He Pikinga Waiora to collaboratively develop and implement Kimi Ora Control group comparisons and participants were recruited from Te Kōhao Health. Multi-method monitoring and collection captured individual, whānau and community data. RESULTS: Kimi Ora was run in two communities in Aotearoa New Zealand. In total, there were 35 participants who took part in an eight-week programme offered five times alongside a comparison group comprising 21 participants. Kimi Ora resulted in significant improvements on all biomedical measures compared to baseline, and participants had gains relative to the comparison group for variables including weight, BMI, blood pressure and waist measurement. Of particular note was the 100% retention rate and sustained community support for Kimi Ora. CONCLUSIONS: Outcomes from Kimi Ora demonstrate this programme, which was actively tailored for and worked with Māori communities in a responsive and flexible manner, resulted in successful biomedical outcomes, high engagement and high retention.
The alienation of the Opuatia block: A GIS case study report written for Counting our Tūpuna
(National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis, the University of Waikato, 2021) Whitehead, Jesse
This report provides an analysis and visualisation of the fragmentation and alienation of the Opuatia block (Opuatia hereafter), as well as changes in its ownership and geographic structure since 1866. The three main aims are to quantify the amount of Opuatia remaining in Ngāti Tiipa ownership at the end of each decade, identifying critical moments in time, and highlighting the processes through which Opuatia was alienated and fragmented. These questions are addressed through a bespoke method that was developed to link data from several sources. These include (but are not limited to) historic records of land alienation, held by the Māori Land Court, and geospatial information available through Land Information New Zealand. The key findings show that approximately 94% of the original Opuatia has been alienated, with only small parcles of land remaining in Ngāti Tiipa ownership. The late 1890s and early 1900s were a criticial period where over 80% of alienations were carried out. The results inidcate that the Crown was a key driver of this process, directly alienating more than 18,000 acres from Opuatia, much of which was taken on a single day in 1896. Individual settlers were responsible for most other alienations, and some of the same names appear several times in the historical record as settler families alienated clusters of land to build up significant stakes in the area. Finally, another result of this report is the method itself, which outlines an approach for tracing a defined block of land through the Native Land Court and linking this information to geospatial datasets. The limitations of this report include the poor interoperability of key data sources, and the barriers that this presents to other hapū or organisations who may want to replicate this work. A more detailed investigation of archival records is required to examine the specific reasons behind why each parent block, and the subdivisions with them, was alienated from Ngāti Tiipa ownership.
The COVID-19 domestic vaccine pass: Implications for Māori
(National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis, 2021-11-30) Kukutai, Tahu; Clark, Vanessa; Mika, Jason; Muru-Lanning, Marama; Pouwhare, Robert; Sterling, Rogena; Teague, Vanessa; Watts, David; Cassim, Shemana
The New Zealand government has introduced a COVID-19 domestic vaccine pass to be used in conjunction with the COVID-19 Protection Framework. The Framework is likely to be activated soon after Cabinet meets on 29 November 2021. The pass will be necessary to access places and events that require proof of vaccination under the Framework. This brief does not argue for or against the introduction of a domestic vaccine pass, but rather discusses key issues that it raises for Māori, and suggests actions to address them. We see four key issues: • the lack of Māori involvement, as a Tiriti partner, on either the design or implementation of the COVID-19 domestic vaccine pass; • disproportionate restriction on Māori mobility due to lower Māori vaccination rates; • privacy and data security concerns; • uneven implementation that could increase discrimination against Māori and other groups considered to pose a risk to others’ safety. To respond to these issues we recommend that the implementation of the pass be designed in partnership with Māori and comply with Māori data sovereignty requirements. As Tiriti partners, Māori should expect that the pass will keep their communities safe, while providing opportunities to enact manaakitanga in the matrix of care, and the mana to manage their own affairs.
Initial report of the 2018 Census external data quality panel
(Stats NZ, 2019) Bedford, Richard; Reid, Alison; Milne, Barry; Cormack, Donna; Cope, Ian; Cook, Len; Kukutai, Tahu; Lumley, Thomas
One in six New Zealand residents did not complete a questionnaire for the 2018 New Zealand Census of Population and Dwellings. This was largely due to operational failures that made it difficult for a significant number of individuals and households to access census questionnaires, and to fulfill their statutory duty to participate.
“We’re trying to heal, you know?” A mixed methods analysis of the spatial equity of General Practitioner services in the Waikato District Health Board region
(New Zealand Demographic Society, 2020) Whitehead, Jesse; Pearson, Amber L.; Lawrenson, Ross; Atatoa-Carr, Polly
Inequitable access to health services can cause and exacerbate inequities in health outcomes and should therefore be monitored regularly to ensure that service distributions match population needs. Health service accessibility includes several factors and can be monitored using both quantitative and qualitative methods. We present an exploratory analysis of the spatial equity of general practice services in the Waikato District Health Board region using a mixed methods approach. Geographic Information Systems are used to assess the spatial accessibility of GP services, and in-depth qualitative interviews provide a better understanding of not only where inequities exist, but why they occur.
Psychosocial support needs of women with breast cancer in the Waikato region
(New Zealand Medical Association, 2019) del Mundo-Ramos, Elaine; Blackmore, Tania Louise; Chepulis, Lynne Merran; Lawrenson, Ross
Breast cancer is the most frequently diagnosed cancer among women and the third most common cancer in New Zealand. Despite improved survival rates, significant psychosocial distress is experienced by breast cancer patients. To address this, the Cancer Psychological and Social Support Service (CPSSS) provides supportive care to cancer patients and their families. We aimed to understand the characteristics and psychosocial support needs of women with breast cancer who were referred to the CPSSS at the Waikato District Health Board (WDHB). Breast cancer data from 2016 to 2018 was obtained from the Waikato Breast Cancer Register (WBCR) and compared to psychosocial support referrals from the CPSSS for the same period.
Final report of the 2018 Census External Data Quality Panel
(Stats NZ, 2020) Bedford, Richard; Reid, Alison; Milne, Barry; Cormack, Donna; Cope, Ian; Cook, Len; Kukutai, Tahu; Lumley, Thomas
At the time this report was submitted for publication in January 2020, Stats NZ was finalizing its release schedule for census products that allow users to produce their own tabulations and statistical analyses using census data (see Appendix 2 for a summary of release dates for 2018 Census products). In early 2020, Stats NZ will release 2018 Census data for use in the Data Lab, a distributed set of secure computer sites where users can access, with approval, microdata for research purposes. By March 2020, 2018 Census data will be in the Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI) and available for use by approved researchers and policy analysts who wish to negotiate access to the IDI.
Family structure and change in early childhood and the wellbeing of tamariki Maori
(Population Association of New Zealand, 2020) Kukutai, Tahu; Prickett, Kate; Atatoa-Carr, Polly; Rata, Arama
Internationally there is growing evidence that family structure, and changes in structure, have an impact on children’s health and wellbeing and the intergenerational transmission of inequity. The effects, however, vary by socio-economic context and ethnicity. Using longitudinal data from Growing Up in New Zealand (n = 1349), we examine family structure and change for tamariki Māori during early childhood, and the potential impacts on their development and wellbeing. We find that a stable two-parent family is the primary experience for tamariki Māori, and sole parenthood is transitory. Diverse family trajectories appear to be linked to poorer cognitive and socio-emotional outcomes but are not the main driver. More important are maternal factors, notably age and education, and material hardship. Importantly, higher levels of cultural connectedness among tamariki Māori, which are associated with diverse family forms, seem to promote socio-emotional development. Our study provides further incentive for policy and programmes that centre equity and support access to the determinants of health for tamariki Māori.
Survivance as narrative identity: Voices from a Ngāti Tiipa oral history project
(2020) Kukutai, Tahu; Mahuika, Nepia; Kani, Heeni; Ewe, Denise; Kukutai, Karu Hura
For Indigenous peoples, and Mäori specifically, storytelling and oral history are crucial to the survival of our collective identities, culture and language. Retold across generations, our stories are often explicit and interwoven narratives of personal and collective memories. Drawing on Native American scholar Gerald Vizenor’s (2009) concept of “survivance stories”, this article explores a set of three oral history narratives of kaumätua from Ngäti Tiipa, one of the 33 iwi and hapü of the Waikato-Tainui confederation. Our analysis reveals how enduring connections to the river and land, the retention of whänau practices and the intergenerational transmission of tüpuna names have shaped contemporary expressions of Ngäti Tiipa identity and belonging. We explore how these testimonies reveal survivance as a repeated theme that has its own nuanced interpretation in individual and collective tribal oral stories.
Māori, census 2018 and data sovereignty
(2019) Kukutai, Tahu
This webinar explores the issues with the 2018 Census data collection and examines what the implications could be for communities and funding. See below to read some relevant articles prior to the webinar. Our presenters also discuss iwi data sovereignty and data bias and the reasons why we should all pay more attention to the quality of the data we provide, use and collect.
Psychosocial support needs of women with breast cancer in the Waikato region of New Zealand
(WILEY, 2020) Blackmore, Tania Louise; del Mundo-Ramos, Elaine; Chepulis, Lynne Merran; Lao, Chunhuan; Burrett, Vanessa Mary; McCleery, Jenny; Campbell, Ian; Lawrenson, Ross
Breast cancer (BC) is the most frequently diagnosed cancer among women and the third most common cancer in New Zealand (NZ), with more than 3000 registrations and 600 deaths annually.¹ While survival from BC in NZ is better than many other cancers, Māori women—the indigenous peoples of NZ—have a higher mortality rate than NZ European women.² Therefore, for many NZ women, a BC diagnosis still threatens possible mortality, and frequently results in significant psychosocial distress. Indeed, around 20% to 50% of women with BC will develop anxiety or depression within 1 year of diagnosis.³
The characteristics and outcomes of patients with colorectal cancer in New Zealand, analysed by Cancer Network.
(New Zealand Medical Association, 2020) Blackmore, Tania Louise; Lao, Chunhuan; Chepulis, Lynne Merran; Page, Blaithin; Lawrenson, Ross
AIM: The incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) in New Zealand is high by international standards. Approximately 1,200 people in New Zealand die from this disease per year. Outcomes in New Zealand following a CRC diagnosis are poor. We aimed to describe the characteristics and outcomes of patients diagnosed with CRC across the four regional cancer networks in New Zealand. METHOD: Patient demographics, tumour characteristics and survival outcomes for all patients diagnosed with CRC between 2006 and 2015 were analysed retrospectively from the National Cancer Registry (NZCR) and National Mortality collection and were linked by National Health Index (NHI) number. RESULTS: A total of 29,221 CRC cases were recorded during the 10-year study period, of which the majority were cancer of the colon (67.9%). In this sample, 42.0% were >75 years, 52.1% were male and 88.1% were New Zealand European. After adjustment for factors such as age, gender, ethnicity year of diagnosis, cancer extent, cancer grade, lymph node and cancer site, cancer-related and all-cause survival were not significantly different by cancer network for those aged <75 but for patients aged >75 years, those living in the Central and Midland Cancer Network had a higher risk of dying of CRC compared to those in the Northern Cancer Network (1.12, 95% CI: 1.03-1.22 and 1.10, 95% CI: 1.02-1.18 respectively). Overall, Māori and Pacific people had worse cancer-specific and all-cause survival than New Zealand European. CONCLUSION: No regional variations were seen within New Zealand for the characteristics and survival outcomes of patients <75 diagnosed with CRC. The risk of dying from CRC increased for those >75, which is supportive of the international literature regarding outcomes for the elderly and CRC. We continue to show disparity in outcomes for Māori and Pacific patients diagnosed with CRC in New Zealand.
Understanding ‘higher’ Māori fertility in a ‘low’ fertility context: Does cultural identity make a difference?
(Population Association of New Zealand, 2018) Rarere, Moana
The Māori fertility transition brought an end to decades of very high fertility rates, and a convergence towards long-term fertility levels similar to Pākehā/New Zealand European women. However, important differences endure. The Māori total fertility rate (TFR) remains above replacement level, and Māori women have children earlier and over a longer period. All of this has and still is occurring in a society that facilitates and favours low fertility and small family sizes. Using births data and cultural identity markers in the New Zealand Census, this paper explores the influence of culture as a contributing factor to higher fertility outcomes amongst Māori women in a low-fertility society.
Indigenous data sovereignty
(IWGIA, 2020) Kukutai, Tahu; Carroll, Stephanie Russo; Walter, Maggie; Mamo, Dwayne
Indigenous Peoples have always been ‘data warriors’. Our ancient traditions recorded and protected information and knowledge through art, carving, song, chants and other practises. Deliberate efforts to expunge these knowledge systems were part and parcel of colonisation, along with state-imposed practices of counting and classifying Indigenous populations. As a result, Indigenous Peoples often encounter severe data deficits when trying to access high quality, culturally relevant data to pursue their goals, but an abundance of data that reflects and serves government interests regarding Indigenous Peoples and their lands. The concept of Indigenous data sovereignty (ID-SOV) is a relatively recent one, with the first major publication on the topic only appearing in 2016.1 ID-SOV is defined as the right of Indigenous Peoples to own, control, access and possess data that derive from them, and which pertain to their members, knowledge systems, customs or territories.2,3,4 ID-SOV is supported by Indigenous Peoples’ inherent rights of self-determination and governance over their peoples, territories and resources as affirmed in the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (UNDRIP), as well as in domestic treaties. ID-SOV recognises that data is a strategic resource and provides a framework for the ethical use of data to advance collective Indigenous wellbeing and self-determination.5,6 In practice ID-Sov means that Indigenous Peoples need to be the decision-makers around how data about them are used. Given that most Indigenous data is not in the possession of Indigenous Peoples, Indigenous data governance (ID-GOV) is seen as a key lever for addressing ID-SOV. ID-GOV harnesses Indigenous Peoples’ values, rights and interests to guide decision-making about how their data are collected, accessed, stored, and used.7 Enacting ID-GOV results in Indigenous control of Indigenous data through both internal Indigenous community data governance policies and practices and external stewardship of Indigenous data via mechanisms and frameworks that reflect Indigenous values.
Census 2018 and Implications for Māori
(Population Association of New Zealand, 2018) Kukutai, Tahu; Cormack, Donna; Kukutai, Tahu; Hohmann-Marriott, B.
The population census is a universal tool of governance but has come under increasing pressure as governments look to reduce costs, gain efficiencies and counter declining response rates. In Aotearoa New Zealand, the census transformation strategy has a short-term focus on modernising the census and a long-term vision of a fully administrative census. The digital-first 2018 Census was an ambitious step towards modernisation but there are growing concerns that it may fail to deliver high-quality data, particularly for Māori and iwi. This research note considers the implications of lower response rates and reflects on the steps that might be taken to retain the trust and confidence of Māori in the census, including possibilities for Māori data governance across the official statistics system.

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