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dc.contributor.authorZachariah, Men_NZ
dc.contributor.authorT, Aen_NZ
dc.contributor.authorAchutaRao, KMen_NZ
dc.contributor.authorSaeed, Fen_NZ
dc.contributor.authorJha, Ren_NZ
dc.contributor.authorDhasmana, MKen_NZ
dc.contributor.authorMondal, Aen_NZ
dc.contributor.authorBonnet, Ren_NZ
dc.contributor.authorVautard, Ren_NZ
dc.contributor.authorPhilip, Sen_NZ
dc.contributor.authorKew, Sen_NZ
dc.contributor.authorVahlberg, Men_NZ
dc.contributor.authorSingh, Ren_NZ
dc.contributor.authorArrighi, Jen_NZ
dc.contributor.authorHeinrich, Den_NZ
dc.contributor.authorThalheimer, Len_NZ
dc.contributor.authorMarghidan, CPen_NZ
dc.contributor.authorKapoor, Aen_NZ
dc.contributor.authorvan Aalst, Men_NZ
dc.contributor.authorRaju, Een_NZ
dc.contributor.authorLi, Sen_NZ
dc.contributor.authorSun, Jen_NZ
dc.contributor.authorVecchi, GAen_NZ
dc.contributor.authorYang, Wen_NZ
dc.contributor.authorHauser, Men_NZ
dc.contributor.authorSchumacher, DLen_NZ
dc.contributor.authorSeneviratne, SIen_NZ
dc.contributor.authorHarrington, Luke J.en_NZ
dc.contributor.authorOtto, FELen_NZ
dc.date.accessioned2023-09-21T00:10:57Z
dc.date.available2023-09-21T00:10:57Z
dc.date.issued2023en_NZ
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10289/16044
dc.description.abstractIn March 2022, large parts over the north Indian plains including the breadbasket region, and southern Pakistan began experiencing prolonged heat, which continued into May. The event was exacerbated due to prevailing dry conditions in the region, resulting in devastating consequences for public health and agriculture. Using event attribution methods, we analyse the role of human-induced climate change in altering the chances of such an event. To capture the extent of the impacts, we choose March-April average of daily maximum temperature over the most affected region in India and Pakistan as the variable. In observations, the 2022 event has a return period of ~1-in-100 years. For each of the climate models, we then calculate the change in probability and intensity of a 1-in-100 year event between the actual and counterfactual worlds for quantifying the role of climate change. We estimate that human-caused climate change made this heatwave about 1°C hotter and 30 times more likely in the current, 2022 climate, as compared to the 1.2 °C cooler, pre-industrial climate. Under a future global warming of 2°C above pre-industrial levels, heatwaves like this are expected to become even more common (2–20 times more likely) and hotter (by 0-1.5°C) compared to now. Stronger and frequent heat waves in the future will impact vulnerable groups as conditions in some regions exceed limits for human survivability. Therefore, mitigation is essential for avoiding loss of lives and livelihood. Heat Action Plans (HAPs) have proved effective to help reduce heat-related mortality in both countries.en_NZ
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherIOP Publishingen_NZ
dc.relation.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/acf4b6en_NZ
dc.rights© 2023 The Author(s). This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 licence.
dc.titleAttribution of 2022 early-spring heatwave in India and Pakistan to climate change: lessons in assessing vulnerability and preparedness in reducing impactsen_NZ
dc.typeJournal Article
dc.identifier.doi10.1088/2752-5295/acf4b6en_NZ
dc.relation.isPartOfEnvironmental Research: Climateen_NZ
pubs.elements-id328304
pubs.publication-statusPublished onlineen_NZ
dc.identifier.eissn2752-5295en_NZ


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