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      Business confidence and cyclical turning points: a Markov-switching approach

      Holmes, Mark J.; Silverstone, Brian
      DOI
       10.1080/13504850701720247
      Link
       www.informaworld.com
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      Citation
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      Holmes, M.J. & Silverston, B. (2010). Business confidence and cyclical turning points: a Markov-switching approach. Applied Economics Letters, 17(3), 229-233.
      Permanent Research Commons link: https://hdl.handle.net/10289/4076
      Abstract
      Markov regime-switching analysis is used to consider the relationship between business confidence and the probability of turning points in cyclical GDP. We find, in an application to New Zealand, that confidence is related to both the deepness and duration of the business cycle and is asymmetric regarding the probability of the economy remaining in a given regime. Overall, the New Zealand business confidence series is a useful indicator of cyclical turning points.
      Date
      2010
      Type
      Journal Article
      Publisher
      Routledge
      Collections
      • Management Papers [1152]
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