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dc.contributor.authorTrolle, Dennis
dc.contributor.authorHamilton, David P.
dc.contributor.authorPilditch, Conrad A.
dc.contributor.authorDuggan, Ian C.
dc.contributor.authorJeppesen, Erik
dc.date.accessioned2010-10-29T03:54:31Z
dc.date.available2010-10-29T03:54:31Z
dc.date.issued2010
dc.identifier.citationTrolle, D., Hamilton, D.P., Pilditch, C.A., Duggan, I.C. & Jeppesen, E. (2010). Predicting the effects of climate change on trophic status of three morphologically varying lakes: Implications for lake restoration and management. Environmental Modelling & Software, 26(4), 354-370.en_NZ
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10289/4729
dc.description.abstractTo quantify the effects of a future climate on three morphologically different lakes that varied in trophic status from oligo-mesotrophic to highly eutrophic, we applied the one-dimensional lake ecosystem model DYRESM-CAEDYM to oligo-mesotrophic Lake Okareka, eutrophic Lake Rotoehu, both in the temperate Bay of Plenty region, and highly eutrophic Lake Ellesmere, in the temperate Canterbury region, New Zealand. All three models were calibrated for a three-year period and validated for a separate two-year period. The model simulations generally showed good agreement with observed data for water column temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO), total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN) and chlorophyll a (Chl a) concentrations. To represent a possible future climate at the end of this century, mean annual changes in air temperature by 2100, derived from the IPCC A2 scenario downscaled for these lake regions, were added to the daily baseline temperatures for years 2002–2007. Lake model simulations using this future climate scenario indicate differential increases in eutrophication in all three lakes, especially during summer months. The predicted effects on annual mean surface water concentrations of TP, TN and Chl a will be equivalent to the effects of increasing external TN and TP loading by 25–50%. Simulations for the polymictic, eutrophic Lake Rotoehu further indicate that cyanophytes will be more abundant in the future climate, increasing by >15% in their contribution to annual mean Chl a. Therefore, future climate effects should be taken into account in the long-term planning and implementation of lake management as strategies may need to be refined and adapted to preserve or improve the present-day lake water quality.en_NZ
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherElsevieren_NZ
dc.subjectDYRESM-CAEDYMen_NZ
dc.subjectecosystem modelen_NZ
dc.subjectnitrogenen_NZ
dc.subjectnutrient loadingen_NZ
dc.subjectphosphorusen_NZ
dc.subjectphytoplanktonen_NZ
dc.titlePredicting the effects of climate change on trophic status of three morphologically varying lakes: Implications for lake restoration and managementen_NZ
dc.typeJournal Articleen_NZ
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.08.009en_NZ
dc.relation.isPartOfEnvironmental Modelling & Softwareen_NZ
pubs.begin-page354en_NZ
pubs.elements-id35427
pubs.end-page370en_NZ
pubs.issue4en_NZ
pubs.volume26en_NZ
uow.identifier.article-no4en_NZ


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