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      The changing geography of world trade: Projections to 2030

      Anderson, Kym; Strutt, Anna
      DOI
       10.1016/j.asieco.2012.02.001
      Link
       www.sciencedirect.com
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      Citation
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      Anderson, K. & Strutt, A. (2012). The changing geography of world trade: Projections to 2030. Journal of Asian Economics 23(4), 303-323.
      Permanent Research Commons link: https://hdl.handle.net/10289/6413
      Abstract
      Rapid economic growth in Asia (and some other emerging economies) has been shifting the global economic and industrial centres of gravity away from the north Atlantic, raising the importance of Asia in world trade, and boosting South–South trade. This paper examines how trade patterns are likely to change in the course of continuing economic growth and structural changes in Asia and the rest of the world over the next two decades. It does so by projecting a core baseline for the world economy from 2004 to 2030 and comparing it with alternative scenarios, including slower economic growth rates in the ‘North’, slower productivity growth in primary sectors, and prospective trade policy reforms in Developing Asia, without and with policy reforms also in the ‘North’ and in South–South trade. Projected impacts on international trade patterns, sectoral shares of GDP, ‘openness’ to trade, and potential welfare gains from reforms are highlighted, in addition to effects on bilateral trade patterns as summarized by intra- and extra-regional trade intensity and propensity indexes. The paper concludes with implications for regional and multilateral trade policy.
      Date
      2012-08
      Type
      Journal Article
      Publisher
      Elsevier
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      • Management Papers [1135]
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