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dc.contributor.authorAnderson, Kym
dc.contributor.authorStrutt, Anna
dc.date.accessioned2013-11-19T21:59:27Z
dc.date.available2013-11-19T21:59:27Z
dc.date.copyright2013-12-18
dc.date.issued2013
dc.identifier.citationAnderson, K., & Strutt, A. (2013). Growth in densely populated Asia: implications for primary product exporters. Asia & Pacific Policy Studies, published online 18 November 2013.en_NZ
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10289/8192
dc.description.abstractEconomic growth and integration in Asia is rapidly increasing the global economic importance of the region. To the extent that this growth continues and is strongest in natural resource-poor Asian economies, it will add to global demand for imports of primary products, to the benefit of (especially nearby) resource-abundant countries. How will global production, consumption and trade patterns change by 2030 in the course of such economic developments and structural changes? We address this question using the GTAP model and Version 8.1 of the 2007 GTAP database, together with supplementary data from a range of sources, to support projections of the global economy from 2007 to 2030 under various scenarios. Factor endowments and real gross domestic product are assumed to grow at exogenous rates, and trade-related policies are kept unchanged to generate a core baseline, which is compared with an alternative slower growth scenario. We also consider the impact of several policy changes aimed at increasing China's agricultural self-sufficiency relative to the 2030 baseline. Policy implications for countries of the Asia-Pacific region are drawn out in the final section.en_NZ
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoenen_NZ
dc.publisherWileyen_NZ
dc.relation.ispartofAsia & the Pacific Policy Studies
dc.relation.urihttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/app5.14/abstracten_NZ
dc.rights© 2013 The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License.en_NZ
dc.subjectAsian economic growthen_NZ
dc.subjectglobal economy-wide model projectionsen_NZ
dc.subjectbooming sector economicsen_NZ
dc.subjectfood securityen_NZ
dc.subjectbilateral tradeen_NZ
dc.titleGrowth in densely populated Asia: implications for primary product exportersen_NZ
dc.typeJournal Articleen_NZ
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/app5.14en_NZ


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