Minimising carbon emissions and energy expended for the New Zealand transport sector through to 2050

Abstract

Carbon Emissions Pinch Analysis (CEPA) and Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROI) analysis are combined to investigate the feasibility of New Zealand (NZ) reaching a 1990 emission levels for transport in 2050. The transportation sector traditionally has been a difficult area to transition to high levels of renewable energy because of the strong dependency on fossil fuels. Multiple scenarios for reducing transport emissions are analysed. With NZ’s unique mix of renewable energy resources the analysis demonstrates that NZ is in a very good position to sustainably meet their future transport needs provided substantial commitment is made to transition light vehicle fleet to hybrid vehicles, plug-in hybrids vehicles and electric vehicles by 2050. Electrification of rail within and between major centres will also require major political commitment. The resulting increase in electricity demand for transport is 3.6 TWh (or 4.8 % of electricity generation in NZ). We show the minimum amount of biofuel renewable production to achieve the goal of 1990 emissions level in 2050 is 46 PJ. Delivering 46 PJ is expected to be well within the potential biofuel production capacity of NZ. The delivery of economically competitive renewable liquid biofuels will also require close cooperation and system integration with other energy systems like the electricity sector and industrial process heat sector.