Is a low-inflation environment associated with reduced exchange rate pass through?

Abstract

This paper investigates the extent of pass through from the US dollar exchange rate to consumer prices in the European Union. A relatively new line of empirical research is pursued that considers whether or not the extent of exchange rate pass through is related to the inflationary environment. In contrast to previous empirical studies, recently developed panel data cointegrating techniques to measure long run pass through are employed. While there is evidence that long-run pass through has declined since the 1970s, it actually increased during the early ERM years despite the presence of lower inflation.