Nowcasting and predicting data revisions using panel survey data

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dc.contributor.authorMatheson, Troy D.
dc.contributor.authorMitchell, James
dc.contributor.authorSilverstone, Brian
dc.date.accessioned2009-08-19T00:48:53Z
dc.date.available2009-08-19T00:48:53Z
dc.date.issued2009
dc.description.abstractThe qualitative responses that firms give to business survey questions regarding changes in their own output provide a real-time signal of official output changes. The most commonly used method to produce an aggregate quantitative indicator from business survey responses - the net balance or diffusion index - has changed little in 40 years. This paper investigates whether an improved real-time signal of official output data changes can be derived from a recently advanced method on the aggregation of survey data from panel responses. We find, in a New Zealand application, that exploiting the panel dimension to qualitative survey data gives a better in-sample signal about official data than traditional methods. Out-of-sample, it is less clear that it matters how survey data are quantified, with simpler and more parsimonious methods hard to improve. It is clear, nevertheless, that survey data, exploited in some form, help to explain revisions to official data.en
dc.identifier.citationMatheson, T. D., Mitchell, J. & Silverstone. B. (2009). Nowcasting and predicting data revisions using panel survey data. Journal of Forecasting.en
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/for.1127en
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10289/2848
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherWiley InterScienceen_NZ
dc.relation.isPartOfJournal of Forecastingen_NZ
dc.relation.urihttp://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/122457087/abstracten
dc.subjectnowcastingen
dc.subjectqualitative business surveyen
dc.subjectquantificationen
dc.subjectreal-time dataen
dc.subjectpane dataen
dc.titleNowcasting and predicting data revisions using panel survey dataen
dc.typeJournal Articleen
pubs.begin-page313en_NZ
pubs.elements-id34275
pubs.end-page330en_NZ
pubs.issue3en_NZ
pubs.volume29en_NZ
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