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Adaptive prediction interval for data stream regression

Abstract
Prediction Interval (PI) is a powerful technique for quantifying the uncertainty of regression tasks. However, research on PI for data streams has not received much attention. Moreover, traditional PI-generating approaches are not directly applicable due to the dynamic and evolving nature of data streams. This paper presents AdaPI (ADAptive Prediction Interval), a novel method that can automatically adjust the interval width by an appropriate amount according to historical information to converge the coverage to a user-defined percentage. AdaPI can be applied to any streaming PI technique as a postprocessing step. This paper develops an incremental variant of the pervasive Mean and Variance Estimation (MVE) method for use with AdaPI. An empirical evaluation over a set of standard streaming regression tasks demonstrates AdaPI’s ability to generate compact prediction intervals with a coverage close to the desired level, outperforming alternative methods.
Type
Conference Contribution
Type of thesis
Series
Citation
Sun, Y., Pfahringer, B., Murilo Gomes, H., & Bifet, A. (2024). Adaptive prediction interval for data stream regression. Lecture Notes in Computer Science. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-97-2259-4_10
Date
2024
Publisher
Springer
Degree
Supervisors
Rights
This is an author’s accepted version of a conference paper published in the series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science (LNAI, volume 14647). © 2024 Springer