Architects as nowcasters of housing construction

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dc.contributor.authorHolmes, Mark J.
dc.contributor.authorMitchell, James
dc.contributor.authorSilverstone, Brian
dc.date.accessioned2009-12-03T01:28:41Z
dc.date.available2009-12-03T01:28:41Z
dc.date.issued2009
dc.description.abstractFor more than four decades, the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) has conducted a two-question, quarterly survey of architect forecasts of public and private sector construction expenditure. This qualitative survey is published one week after the end of each quarter and nine weeks ahead of the official quantitative data thereby giving architect opinion nowcasting status. This paper covers selected aspects of this unexplored series with particular reference to residential housing construction and the value-added information from architects as nowcasters. Specifically, we consider several qualitative-to-quantitative conversion methods, in-sample and out-of-sample performance, cyclical features and respondent dynamics. Although our work relates to architects - a sub-sector of the service industry - our results have a wider application to business survey questions using ordered qualitative responses.en
dc.identifier.citationHolmes, M. J., Mitchell, J. & Silverstone, B. (2009). Architects as nowcasters of housing construction. National Institute Economic Review, 210(1), 111-122.en
dc.identifier.doi10.1177/0027950109354414en
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10289/3455
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherSage Publicationsen_NZ
dc.relation.isPartOfNational Institute Economic Reviewen_NZ
dc.relation.urihttp://ner.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/210/1/111en
dc.subjectnowcastingen
dc.subjectreal-timeen
dc.subjectarchitectsen
dc.subjectqualitative-to-quantitative conversionen
dc.subjectbusiness surveysen
dc.subjecthousing constructionen
dc.titleArchitects as nowcasters of housing constructionen
dc.typeJournal Articleen
pubs.begin-page111en_NZ
pubs.elements-id34521
pubs.end-page122en_NZ
pubs.issue1en_NZ
pubs.volume210en_NZ
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