Emerging economies, productivity growth and trade with resource-rich economies by 2030

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dc.contributor.authorAnderson, Kym
dc.contributor.authorStrutt, Anna
dc.coverage.spatialConference held at Sydney, Australiaen_NZ
dc.date.accessioned2014-01-08T22:09:38Z
dc.date.available2014-01-08T22:09:38Z
dc.date.copyright2014-01-08
dc.date.issued2014
dc.description.abstractRapid economic growth in some emerging economies in recent decades has significantly increased their global economic importance. If this rapid growth continues and is strongest in resource-poor Asian economies, the growth in global demand for imports of primary products also will continue, to the ongoing benefit of natural resource-rich countries. This paper explores how global production, consumption and trade patterns might change over the next two decades in the course of economic development and structural changes under various scenarios. We employ the GTAP model and version 8.1 of the GTAP database with a base year of 2007, along with supplementary data from a range of sources, to support projections of the global economy to 2030. We first project a baseline assuming that trade-related policies do not change in each region but that factor endowments and real GDP grow at exogenously estimated rates. That baseline is compared with two alternative scenarios: one in which the growth rates of China and India are lower by one-quarter and the other in which this slowdown in emerging economies leads to slower productivity growth in the primary sectors of all countries. Throughout the results, implications are drawn out for natural resource-abundant economies, including Australia and New Zealand.en_NZ
dc.identifier.citationAnderson, K., & Strutt, A. (2014). Emerging economies, productivity growth and trade with resource-rich economies by 2030. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, published online on 8 January 2014.en_NZ
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/1467-8489.12039en_NZ
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10289/8374
dc.language.isoenen_NZ
dc.publisherWileyen_NZ
dc.relation.isPartOfAUSTRALIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL AND RESOURCE ECONOMICSen_NZ
dc.relation.ispartofAustralian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics
dc.relation.urihttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-8489.12039/abstracten_NZ
dc.sourceAARES 57th Annual Conferenceen_NZ
dc.subjectAsian economic growth and structural changeen_NZ
dc.subjectbooming sector economicsen_NZ
dc.subjectfood securityen_NZ
dc.subjectglobal economy-wide model projectionsen_NZ
dc.titleEmerging economies, productivity growth and trade with resource-rich economies by 2030en_NZ
dc.typeJournal Articleen_NZ
pubs.begin-page590en_NZ
pubs.elements-id22815
pubs.end-page606en_NZ
pubs.finish-date2013-02-08en_NZ
pubs.issue4en_NZ
pubs.start-date2013-02-05en_NZ
pubs.volume58en_NZ
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