Establishing a conceptual model for residential development in New Zealand

Abstract

There is growing concern among planners, policymakers, regulators, urban economists, and the general public that the contemporary housing market is failing to either provide an adequate supply of affordable housing. Mainstream thought attributes the ‘housing crisis’ primarily to the restriction of new housing supply by the planning system, creating an impetus to deregulate and liberalise urban land use through programmes of mass upzoning like the Auckland Unitary Plan. However, current models of urban land use change often ignore the way that diversity in developer behaviour and decision-making may affect development and land use outcomes. Significant features of this developer diversity in a New Zealand context include the strong and growing role of Māori in development and the importance of small homeowners and investors.

There is also growing concern that contemporary housing development does not adequately account for natural hazard risk and the future impacts of climate change. There is a lack of research investigating how developers react to natural hazard risks, mapping, and policy settings.

To remedy this weakness in the literature, this research identified and analysed diversity in the behaviour and decision-making of housing developers in New Zealand when deciding whether to purchase, develop, and/or sell sites. Special attention was given to sites subject to significant natural hazard risk(s) and the impact of policy interventions intended to control or manage development in at-risk areas. This was achieved through a review of the existing conceptual models of development and typologies of developers in the literature and a series of surveys and interviews with diverse developers throughout New Zealand. It outlines key conceptual features of the housing sector in New Zealand and proposes a new typology of housing developers that is specific to this context.

Key findings include the significant diversity that exists between developer types in the prioritisation of key variables and values that determine whether they choose to invest in an at-risk site; diversity of reactions to natural hazard risks and disparities in the efficacy of common risk communication tools between regions; and the vital role of the insurance sector in determining future land use change patterns and natural hazard risk exposure.

This research reveals the importance of a detailed and nuanced understanding of diverse developer behaviour and decision-making for future policymaking land use change modelling. It also highlights regional and local disparities in developer responses to current natural hazard mapping projects and the vital role of the insurance sector in determining future land use change patterns and natural hazard risk exposure by influencing in the site selection and development behaviour of housing developers.