The rise of homicides on the Baja California Peninsula in 2017: A bloody mess

Abstract

The Baja California Peninsula (BCP) is situated in the northwest of Mexico and consists of two major Mexican states, Baja California and Baja California Sur. For decades the peninsula has remained relatively quiet in the overspill of violence generated by the early War on Drugs pursued by Vicente Fox in 2000 and again with a more rigorous approach by Felipe Calderon in 2006. Drug-related violence is affecting areas that have previously not been reached before, causing the Baja California region to become a battleground for drug trafficking organizations’ contesting drug routes. From 2014, homicide levels began to rise in the Baja California Peninsula, with a spike of homicides in 2017 causing the region to have one of the highest rates nationwide. The spike of 85.6% in homicides on the BCP and a difference of 325% - three times the national average for homicide rates in 2017, is the reasoning why this paper will seek to understand and answer the question ‘Why has the homicide rate in the Baja California Peninsula spiked in 2017?’ The rise of homicides on the BCP is analysed and discussed in relation to three main factors. Factor one discusses how Joaquin Guzman’s controlled the police, government officials, and cartel routes through key cities on the BCP, the relationship between Joaquin Guzman’s Sinaloa Cartel, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel and the splintering factions fighting for cartel routes. It also discusses the destabilizing of cartels, also called the top-down approach. This model is discussed in relation to the increase of homicides and the role it played with the emergence of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel. A case study is provided of homicides in relation to the turf wars and the impacts this had on the spike of homicide rates. Factor two focuses on Government initiatives such as the militarisation strategy and the deployment of soldiers contributing to a spike in homicide rates. Factor three analyses the increased attack on women and journalists and how these attacks are often over-looked but have contributed to the Spike of homicides on the Baja California Peninsula.