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Prediction Intervals for Class Probabilities

Abstract
Prediction intervals for class probabilities are of interest in machine learning because they can quantify the uncertainty about the class probability estimate for a test instance. The idea is that all likely class probability values of the test instance are included, with a pre-specified confidence level, in the calculated prediction interval. This thesis proposes a probabilistic model for calculating such prediction intervals. Given the unobservability of class probabilities, a Bayesian approach is employed to derive a complete distribution of the class probability of a test instance based on a set of class observations of training instances in the neighbourhood of the test instance. A random decision tree ensemble learning algorithm is also proposed, whose prediction output constitutes the neighbourhood that is used by the Bayesian model to produce a PI for the test instance. The Bayesian model, which is used in conjunction with the ensemble learning algorithm and the standard nearest-neighbour classifier, is evaluated on artificial datasets and modified real datasets.
Type
Thesis
Type of thesis
Series
Citation
Yu, X. (2007). Prediction Intervals for Class Probabilities (Thesis, Master of Science (MSc)). The University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10289/2436
Date
2007
Publisher
The University of Waikato
Supervisors
Rights
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