International Global Change Institute Papers

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://researchcommons.waikato.ac.nz/handle/10289/894

The International Global Change Institute (IGCI) was an interdisciplinary research and teaching institute focusing on the human dimensions of global environmental change. IGCI's goal was to integrate knowledge on the natural and human dimensions of global environmental change for use in policy development and decision-making. It was a self-funding unit within the University of Waikato.

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Now showing 1 - 13 of 13

New developments of the SimCLIM model for simulating adaptation to risks arising from climate variability and change
(Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, 2005) Warrick, Richard A.; Ye, Wei; Kouwenhoven, P.; Hay, J.E.; Cheatham, C.
This paper describes these improvements to SimCLIM and demonstrates their application through a pilot study of coastal flood risk from tropical cyclones in a community on the island of Rarotonga, Cook Islands. Multiple simulations are conducted with and without climate change, and with and without adaptation. The results thereby give clear indications of the relative magnitude of present and future impacts of tropical cyclones and the relative costs and benefits of adaptation options for reducing the risks.
Effects of climate change on maize production, and potential adaptation measures: a case study in Jilin Province, China
(Inter-Research, 2011) Wang, Meng; Li, Yinpeng; Ye, Wei; Bornman, Janet F.; Yan, Xiaodong
Jilin is among the most important grain-producing provinces in China. Its maize production plays an important role in local and national food security. In this study, we developed a new approach to assess the vulnerability and adaptation options for Jilin maize yields with respect to climate change by modifying a site-based biophysical model to a spatial grid-based application. An ensemble approach that used a combination of 20 general circulation model results and 6 scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios was adopted in order to reflect the high uncertainties in future climate projections. The results show that the yield is highly likely to decline in the western and central regions of Jilin but to increase in the east, where maize is not currently grown as the main crop. Phenologically, the growing season will be reduced in the central and western parts, leading to a shortened grain-filling period. The average maize yield in the west and central regions is thus projected to decrease 15% or more by 2050 as predicted by 90% of 120 projected scenarios. In addition, CO₂ fertilization was investigated and demonstrated a noticeable compensation effect on the yield deduction. However, further field work and/or laboratory-based experiments are required to validate the modeled CO₂ fertilization effects. Two potential adaptation strategies, i.e. improving irrigation facilities and introducing cultivars, were identified from the vulnerability assessment and were further tested for the reduction areas. The results revealed that the increase in effective irrigation by upgrading the irrigation system would help to maintain the current production level, but in the long run, the maize cultivars need to be introduced in line with the future warming climate.
Statistical downscaling of regional daily precipitation over southeast Australia based on self-organizing maps
(Springer, 2010) Yin, Chonghua; Li, Yinpeng; Ye, Wei; Bornman, Janet F.; Yan, Xiaodong
This paper presents a novel statistical downscaling method based on a non-linear classification technique known as self-organizing maps (SOMs) and has therefore been named SOM-SD. The relationship between large-scale atmospheric circulation and local-scale surface variable was constructed in a relatively simple and transparent manner. For a specific atmospheric state, an ensemble of possible values was generated for the predictand following the Monte Carlo method. Such a stochastic simulation is essential to explore the uncertainties of climate change in the future through a series of random re-sampling experiments. The novel downscaling method was evaluated by downscaling daily precipitation over Southeast Australia. The large-scale predictors were extracted from the daily NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data, while the predictand was high-resolution gridded daily observed precipitation (1958–2008) from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The results showed that the method works reasonably well across a variety of climatic zones in the study area. Overall, there was no particular zone that stands out as a climatic entity where the downscaling skill in reproducing all statistical indices was consistently lower or higher across seasons than the other zones. The method displayed a high skill in reproducing not only the climatologic statistical properties of the observed precipitation, but also the characteristics of the extreme precipitation events. Furthermore, the model was able to reproduce, to a certain extent, the inter-annual variability of precipitation characteristics.
The nature of natural: defining natural character for the New Zealand context
(New Zealand Ecological Society, 2010) Froude, Victoria A.; Rennie, Hamish Gordon; Bornman, Janet F.
New Zealand has a long-standing statutory policy goal to preserve the natural character of the coastal environment and various freshwater environments and their margins. In the absence of an authoritative definition, it has not been possible to develop a method to measure natural character and its change, nor the outcomes of the long-standing national policy goal. Here we develop a definition of natural character that is relevant and useful in the New Zealand environmental, cultural and legal/policy context. Literature-derived interpretations of natural character and equivalent concepts are evaluated as to their potential suitability for developing a biophysical definition of natural character. Using a set of carefully designed criteria a subset of interpretations are condensed into a definition of natural character. The application of this definition is qualified following consideration of the literature addressing human perception and experiences of natural character. Appropriate reference conditions and baselines for evaluating natural character in different contexts are discussed.
Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: progress report, 2009
(Royal Society of Chemistry, 2010) Andrady, Anthony; Aucamp, Pieter J.; Bais, Alkiviadis F.; Ballare, Carlos L.; Bjorn, Lars Olof; Bornman, Janet F.; Caldwell, Martyn M.; Cullen, Anthony P.; Erickson, David J.; de Gruijl, Frank R.; Hader, Donat- P.; Ilyas, Mohammad; Kulandaivelu, G.; Kumar, H. D.; Longstreth, Janice; McKenzie, Richard L.; Norval, Mary; Paul, Nigel; Redhwi, Halim Hamid; Smith, Raymond C.; Solomon, Keith R.; Sulzberger, Barbara; Takizawa, Yukio; Tang, Xiaoyan; Teramura, Alan H.; Torikai, Ayako; van der Leun, Jan C.; Wilson, Stephen R.; Worrest, Robert C.; Zepp, Richard G.
The parties to the Montreal Protocol are informed by three panels of experts. One of these is the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP), which deals with UV radiation and its effects on human health, animals, plants, biogeochemistry, air quality and materials. Since 2000, the analyses and interpretation of these effects have included interactions between UV radiation and global climate change. When considering the effects of climate change, it has become clear that processes resulting in changes in stratospheric ozone are more complex than believed previously. As a result of this, human health and environmental problems will likely be longer-lasting and more regionally variable. Like the other panels, the EEAP produces a detailed report every four years; the most recent was that for 2006 (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2007, 6, 201–332). In the years in between, the EEAP produces a less detailed and shorter progress report, as is the case for this present one for 2009. A full quadrennial report will follow for 2010.
Terrestrial ecosystems, increased solar ultraviolet radiation and interactions with other climatic change factors
(Royal Society of Chemistry, 2007) Caldwell, Martyn M.; Ballare, Carlos L.; Bornman, Janet F.; Flint, Stephen D.; Bjorn, Lars Olof; Teramura, Alan H.; Kulandaivelu, G.; Tevini, Manfred
Based on research to date, we can state some expectations about terrestrial ecosystem response as several elements of global climate change develop in coming decades. Higher plant species will vary considerably in their response to elevated UV-B radiation, but the most common general effects are reductions in height of plants, decreased shoot mass if ozone reduction is severe, increased quantities of some phenolics in plant tissues and, perhaps, reductions in foliage area. In some cases, the common growth responses may be lessened by increasing CO2 concentrations. However, changes in chemistry of plant tissues will generally not be reversed by elevated CO2. Among other things, changes in plant tissue chemistry induced by enhanced UV-B may reduce consumption of plant tissues by insects and other herbivores, although occasionally consumption may be increased. Pathogen attack on plants may be increased or decreased as a consequence of elevated UV-B, in combination with other climatic changes. This may be affected both by alterations in plant chemistry and direct damage to some pathogens. Water limitation may decrease the sensitivity of some agricultural plants to UV-B, but for vegetation in other habitats, this may not apply. With global warming, the repair of some types of UV damage may be improved, but several other interactions between warming and enhanced UV-B may occur. For example, even though warming may lead to fewer killing frosts, with enhanced UV-B and elevated CO2 levels, some plant species may have increased sensitivity to frost damage.
FIJICLIM description and users guide
(The International Global Change Institute (IGCI), University of Waikato., 2000-02) Kenny, Gavin J.; Ye, Wei; Warrick, Richard A.; de Wet, Neil
The FIJICLIM prototype is based on PACCLIM which was developed by the International Global Change Institute (IGCI) as part of the Pacific Islands Climate Change Assistance Programme (PICCAP) executed by the South Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP). Both FIJICLIM and PACCLIM build directly on a comparable model development for New Zealand, known as the CLIMPACTS system (Kenny et al., 1995, 1999; Warrick et al., 1996, 1999). The development of CLIMPACTS has been funded by the Foundation for Research Science and Technology since 1993. Its core components, which include a graphic user interface (GUI), a customised geographic information system (GIS), and data compression routines, have provided the basis for the development of FIJICLIM. The development of FIJICLIM is complementary to similar developments that have evolved from CLIMPACTS, for Bangladesh (BDCLIM), Australia (OZCLIM), and for training in climate change V&A assessment (VANDACLIM).
Capacity-building activities related to climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessment and economic valuation for Fiji
(The International Global Change Institute (IGCI), University of Waikato., 2000-11-02) Kenny, Gavin J.; de Wet, Neil
The Terms of Reference for this work specified three objectives to the Fiji component: Objective 1a: to provide a prototype FIJICLIM model (covered under PICCAP funding) Objective 1b: to provide training and transfer of FIJICLIM Objective 1c: to present and evaluate World Bank study findings and to identify future directions for development and use of FIJICLIM (2-day workshop) Proceedings of the training course and workshop were prepared by the Fiji Department of Environment. The summaries from these proceedings reflect a very high degree of success with the contracted activities.
Climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessment for Fiji
(The International Global Change Institute (IGCI), University of Waikato., 2000-01-20) Feresi, Jone; Kenny, Gavin J.; de Wet, Neil; Limalevu, Leone; Bhusan, Jagat; Ratukalou, Inoke
All nations, including Fiji, that are signatories to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) are obliged to provide National Communications to the Conference of Parties (COP) of the UNFCCC. The COP4 stressed the need for parties to the Convention to take into account the need for establishing implementation strategies for adaptation to climate and sea-level changes. As such, Fiji is required to submit a National Communication document that shall include information on climate change vulnerability and adaptation implementation policies and strategies. The methodology used in this assessment is based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) technical guidelines (Carter et al, 1994) for assessing climate change impacts and adaptation. Firstly, the present conditions are examined and key sectors identified. Then, future climatic and non-climatic scenarios are used to examine the possible effects of climate and sea-level changes on the various sectors identified. These then form the basis for identifying possible adaptation response measures for endorsement, adoption and implementation by the Fiji government. Because of the many gaps in present knowledge, and the fact that this study is focussed only on Viti Levu, the recommendations in this report should be seen as starting point for an on-going process of vulnerability and adaptation assessment in Fiji
Climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessment for Fiji: Supplementary Fiji coastal impacts study
(The International Global Change Institute (IGCI), University of Waikato., 2000-06-30) Feresi, Jone; Kenny, Gavin J.; de Wet, Neil; Limalevu, Leone; Bhusan, Jagat; Ratukalou, Inoke
This document presents extended case studies of the impacts of climate change on the Fiji coast. In particular the study evaluates: 1. Coastal erosion at 3 representative sites on the coast of Viti Levu. 2. Inundation at 3 representative sites on the coast of Viti Levu.
Vulnerability of traditional beef sector to drought and the challenges of climate change: The case of Kgatleng District, Botswana
(Academic Journals, 2008-03) Masike, Sennye; Urich, Peter
Cattle’s rearing in Botswana is undertaken in two sectors: the communal and commercial. The communal sector is exclusively free range and therefore depends on biomass production. This makes the systems highly susceptible to drought. One strategy that has been devised by farmers to adapt to drought has been to overstock. However, this strategy may not be the best adaptation strategy as it leads to overgrazing and quick depletion of scarce biomass during the drought years. Climate change may increase the vulnerability of the communal cattle sector in the country mostly through changes and variability of rainfall. In the article, we determine the reliability of the rainfall in the Khurutshe area, Botswana. Vulnerability of the cattle sector to system severe failure is also determined. Lastly, the effects of climate change on return period of drought are investigated. Results indicate that the reliability index of rainfall in the Kgatleng District is 0.5. The vulnerability index of the cattle is estimated at 8000 per year. Lastly, using SimCLIM computer model climate change will shorten the return period of mild drought from 2 years to 1.6 years by 2050. These findings have serious implications on the recovery period of the cattle to withstand the next drought period.
Hotspots: Modelling capacity for vector-borne disease risk analysis in New Zealand: A case study of Ochlerotatus camptorhynchus incursions in New Zealand
(The International Global Change Institute (IGCI), University of Waikato., 2005-04) de Wet, Neil; Slaney, David; Ye, Wei; Hales, Simon; Warrick, Richard A.
This Hotspots case study of Oc. camptorhynchus in New Zealand forms part of the wider aims and objectives of the Hotspots project. The overall aims of the case study were: 1. To evaluate the performance of the Hotspots model as a risk analysis tool for Oc. camptorhynchus; 2. To use and learn from the experience of the various incursions of Oc. camptorhynchus in order to critically assess and improve the model; 3. To gain experience in using the model for risk analysis for Oc. camptorhynchus in particular, and in so doing, also develop experience applicable to risk analysis for other vectors of concern (Table 1); and, 4. To develop an experience and knowledge base as well as guidelines for future use of the model in its various applications related to biosecurity, surveillance and risk assessment and management.
Hotspots: Exotic mosquito risk profiles for New Zealand
(The International Global Change Institute (IGCI), University of Waikato., 2005-04) de Wet, Neil; Slaney, David; Ye, Wei; Hales, Simon; Warrick, Richard A.
This document reports the main findings of the first systematic, spatial analyses of risks to New Zealand associated with exotic mosquitoes of current public health concern.

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